Sunday, 20 August 2017
Welcome back football fans. I hope everyone had a great summer, but it is time to get back to business. A new season of Premier League football is approaching, and once again it looks like a corker, promising fake drama, real tears, and hopefully some good football. As per usual the Ephemeric is here to run the rule over every team in the Premier League and render a few inevitably accurate predictions. Read on for the ultimate preview of what awaits us these next nine months.
Premier League 2017/18 Predictions in a nutshell:
Champions: Manchester United
Champions League qualifiers: Manchester United, Manchester City, Tottenham, Liverpool
Relegated: Swansea, Crystal Palace, Brighton
Golden Boot winner: Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur)
Golden Glove winner: David de Gea (Manchester United)
Player to watch: Dele Alli (Tottenham Hotspur)
New signing to watch: Romelu Lukaku (Manchester United)
Young player to watch: Tammy Abraham (Swansea)
First manager to get the sack: Craig Shakespeare (Leicester City)
Shock of the season: Arsene Wenger leaves Arsenal
ARSENAL
Nickname: The Gunners
Ground: Emirates Stadium
Capacity: 60,000
Position last season: 5th
Manager: Arsene Wenger
Fifteen years without a league title, and now for the first time in Wenger's Arsenal tenure, no Champions League football. It's going from bad to worse for Arsenal, and it's no surprise that the calls to replace manager Arsene Wenger have increased and reached a fever pitch. Many expected him to go after last year's failures, but he has stuck around for another year. Make no mistake though, there can be no excuse for a repeat performance this season.
Typically the problem with Arsenal has been money, not that they don't have it, but that they refuse to spend it. Whether by some misplaced morality, or the simple greed of the club's board, the club has become typified by a lack of ambition. Now with massive recent outlays on transfer spending, including the £50 million deals for Ozil and Sanchez, £40 million on Granit Xhaka, and this year a cool £50 million for Lacazette, the club seems finally to have accepted this new reality. The money has been flowing, now the question is whether they waited too long and are simply too far off the pace to seriously challenge the big clubs. Based on last year's showing, it would appear that this may be the case.
The headline signing of the summer has been French striker Alexandre Lacazette. It's a excellent start, but won't be enough in itself to paper over the deficiencies elsewhere in the squad. More concerning for Gunners is the ongoing saga over Alexis Sanchez, by far their best player of the last few years. At a time when they need to be retaining their key personnel and building a squad, losing Sanchez would come as a bitter blow to their chances.
Key Signing: Alexandre Lacazette
Key Man: Alexis Sanchez (if he stays)
Verdict: A lot of question marks, they face a tough challenge to break back into the top 4.
BOURNEMOUTH
Nickname: The Cherries
Ground: Dean Court
Capacity: 11,700
Last season: 9th
Manager: Eddie Howe
An impressive season for Bournemouth saw the side secure a top half finish in only their second Premier League campaign. Great credit has to go to manager Eddie Howe for his constant drive to exceed expectations. No time to rest on laurels though, two good seasons doesn't guarantee sustained success.
Their meteoric rise through the leagues (League One just five years ago!) is only part of the feel-good story surrounding the club right now. Progress has been made on a new stadium, while their summer's transfer activity has been ambitious, and astute. The signing of Aké from Chelsea could be one of the signings of the season, while the addition of experienced goalkeeper Begovic is a smart purchase. Jermain Defoe also joins this summer, a player who, despite his advancing years, still inevitably brings goals.
Equally, they have done a good job in retaining their key players from last year. It's not the league's deepest squad, particularly at the back, but they are well stocked in the midfield and up front. Striker Joshua King riding a wave of goalscoring form from last season, and could form a deadly partnership with Defoe. There is no doubting the difficulty of what lies ahead, but Eddie Howe is a good manager and on paper they don't look worse off than last year.
Key Signing: Nathan Aké
Key Man: Joshua King
Verdict: A tough ask for them to repeat last season's feats, but who would bet against them? We're going for a solid mid table finish.
BRIGHTON
Nickname: The Seagulls
Ground: Falmer Stadium
Capacity: 30,750
Last season: Promoted (2nd)
Manager: Chris Hughton
These Premier Legaue debutants may have been unexpected runners up in last year's Championship, but will need to adapt quickly if they are to navigate the colossal step up to the Premier League. At a time when even the league's smaller clubs command great financial resources and high quality on the pitch, there is no room for hesitance or inexperience. Brighton will require great strengthening just to survive.
It is to their credit that they have at the helm the experienced management of Chris Hughton, and players such as Anthony Knockaert and Liam Rosenior who are familiar with the league. But otherwise there remains a great question mark over much their squad.
They have been active in the transfer market within the confines of their financial means, the most notable of which will be the key signing of goalkeeper Mathew Ryan from Valencia. The additional depth will serve them well and ensure that they are no pushovers in this league, but have they made the kind of moves, and brought in the kind of experience that new clubs need to succeed in this league? I'm not so sure.
The Seagulls understandably begin the season on a wave of enthusiasm, but they know they face an uphill struggle in order to survive. Away fans best enjoy the opportunity for football trips to the beach while they can.
Key Signing: Mathew Ryan
Key Man: Anthony Knockaert
Verdict: No pushovers by any means, but among the favourites for the drop.
BURNLEY
Nickname: The Clarets
Ground: Turf Moor
Capacity: 21,800
Last season: 16th
Manager: Sean Dyche
Sean Dyche is a fine manager and has done very well to survive last season with such meagre resources at his disposal. Burnley now heads into a second consecutive season in the Premier League and will be looking to consolidate their position.
To this end they have reinforced with some solid Premier League experience in Jack Cork and Phil Bardsley, but with key player Andre Gray going in the other direction. They will be looking for players like Sam Vokes to take up the mantle of main goal threat, while doing everything to keep ahold of key players like Steven Defour and Benjamin Mee.
Many pundits have favoured Burnley for relegation this season, but I think this does them a disservice. Make no mistake, this is not an especially strong squad, and with another manager they may be favourites for the drop, but with Dyche at the helm they stand a good chance of survival.
Key Signing: Jack Cork
Key Man: Sam Vokes
Verdict: Tough battle for survival, but one they can win.
CHELSEA
Nickname: Blues
Ground: Stamford Bridge
Capacity: 41,837
Last season: Champions
Manager: Antonio Conte
It's difficult not to feel a sense of deja vu. Two years ago Chelsea were champions, but after a summer of stagnation, incompetent transfer policy, and complacency, they ended their title defence in 10th. They scapegoated the manager and swept the failure of that season under the rug. Duly they strengthened, bounced back, and are champions once more. Well surprise surprise, they didn't learn from their mistake. History is set to repeat itself.
Chelsea's squad last season was already among the smallest in the league. They owe much of their title win to the fact that they missed out on Europe, and thus had fewer games than their competition. So the fact that they have reduced the size of their squad over the summer is hard to understand. They have signed three decent players, Alvaro Morata from Real Madrid, Antonio Rudiger from Roma, and Tiemoue Bakayoko from Monaco, but they have sold twice as many players as they have brought in. The result is a squad which currently has only 14 senior outfield players, barely enough to fill a subs bench, and no proven striker. Sure, they still have Eden Hazard and N'golo Kante, but two players can't carry a team. A single injury or suspension here could send the squad into a crisis. Just look at the bench of their opening fixture, populated almost entirely by youth products.
Even more inexplicable is the lack of a pre-season. They have played just three pre-season games this summer, compared to 6 - 8 that they ordinarily play. It is no wonder then that they looked so sluggish and unfit in the Community Shield game.
I've never seen a team of champions enter a title defence with such pessimism. This is a squad that is clearly insufficient in depth and quality for a title challenge, and perhaps for a top four finish. It is also a squad that is bizarrely unprepared for a new season, with little in the way of warm up to pull them out of their summer holidays. Two years ago, I made a bold prediction that the champions could miss out on top four, a prediction which was widely mocked, and yet turned out to be highly prescient. All signs indicate that this season could be just as bad.
Key Signing: Alvaro Morata
Key Man: Eden Hazard
Verdict: Any notion of a title defence is absurd, without at least 3 more signings top four will be a struggle.
CRYSTAL PALACE
Nickname: Eagles, Glaziers
Ground: Selhurst Park
Capacity: 25,456
Last season: 14th
Manager: Frank de Boer
Stability has been tricky to come by for Crystal Palace in recent times, through a slew of managerial changes and squad upheaval. Yet they will be hearted by the fact that they enter a 5th consecutive season in the top flight. Now with the appointment of Frank de Boer, a manager with genuine status, there is the hope that the club is starting to be seen as a Premier League mainstay, rather than one concerned with mere survival. This is a mistake, their position is far more tenuous than it appears.
It's not just luck that has led to this managerial merry-go-round. There is work that needs to be done to build consistency. Yet the club has let go of a whopping 13 players this summer, and brought in just 1 on a permanent basis. The club with nevertheless be buoyed by the promising loan moves for Chelsea youngster Ruben Loftus Cheek and Manchester United youth Timothy Fosu-Mensah, both very intriguing additions who will be interesting to see gaining regular Premier League football.
The rest of the team is not bad by any means, with the likes of Christian Benteke, Wilfried Zaha and Patrick van Aanholt in the first XI, but beyond that the depth of the squad seems a little suspect for a Premier League campaign, and one would hope that they bring in additional new faces before the end of the transfer window.
There is much to be intrigued by this Crystal Palace team, but it's clear that they have not addressed the main concerns with the squad, and seem increasingly reliant on unproven quality. The lack of squad depth makes a battle for survival a very real possibility this season. They must avoid complacency.
Key Signing: Ruben Loftus Cheek
Key Man: Wilfried Zaha
Verdict: Not safe by any means, relegation a very real possibility.
EVERTON
Nickname: Toffees
Ground: Goodison Park
Capacity: 40,170
Last season: 7th
Manager: Ronald Koeman
Premier League mainstays Everton enter this season in an unfamiliar position, with serious financial backing from their board. The famously frugal management has splashed a cool hundred million this summer in order to back manager Ronald Koeman. That's the kind of money one would expect of a side that's pushing very much for Champions League qualification.
Serious money has been spent on Jordan Pickford, Davy Klaassen and Michael Keane, while former youth star Wayne Rooney has been resigned from Manchester United. They will, of course, be missing the goalscoring threat of Romelu Lukaku, who went in the other direction.
So what are their prospect this season? They're a good side, one of the best in the league and with decent depth. There is an absence of players who can offer real penetration, particularly among their extended squad, and of course they miss a frontman with the calibre of their outgoing Lukaku. Of their signings, Pickford has potential but still has much to prove, while with Rooney Koeman is gambling that the former England captain was written off too soon at United. They'll make a good showing of it, but unlikely to trouble the top four this season.
Key Signing: Michael Keane
Key Man: Morgan Schneiderlin
Verdict: Probably looking at a similar finish to last year, just outside the top four.
HUDDERSFIELD
Nickname: The Terriers
Ground: John Smith's Stadium
Capacity: 24,500
Last season: Promoted (Play-off)
Manager: David Wagner
The league's "biggest underdogs", "certain for the drop". These are all things being said about Huddersfield. And sure, they're nobody's favourite. They're Premier League newcomers, with little in the way of Premier League talent, but that also means low pressure, and belies the fact that they have actually made some pretty solid transfer moves this summer.
Steve Mounie and Mathias Jorgensen will provide decent talent for a low level Premier League side, but the most significant new face is Tom Ince, a highly talented player with plenty of top flight experience. Frankly it's surprising that no bigger side has moved for him sooner given the promise shown during his Blackpool years, but Huddersfield will reap the benefits.
Make no mistake, a monumental challenge faces this team in the coming year, but then no one fancied them for promotion last year either and look where we are. This is a club with a manager who can motivate his team and get more out of them than one might expect. They have strengthened shrewdly and reinforced in precisely the right areas. I think they could surprise people.
Key Signing: Tom Ince
Key Man: Christopher Schindler
Verdict: Everyone's favourite for relegation, I think they could surprise, and maybe survive.
LEICESTER CITY
Nickname: The Foxes
Ground: King Power Stadium
Capacity: 32,315
Last season: 12th
Manager: Craig Shakespeare
It is not at all a surprise that Leicester City failed to live up to their previous season's billing. Their title winning heroics were among the most astonishing feats in sporting history, and a subsequent slump to mid table is mere reversion to the mean. So where does that leave them? Hard to say. Is mid table the natural place for this club, or can they push on again into the top tier of clubs. Might they even be at risk of relegation as one might expect of a club with such limited top flight experience? It's hard to say.
There are warning signs for sure. Shakespeare does not look a longterm solution in the dugout. A change in management usually leads to a temporary resurgence in form, but beyond that it's hard to see what he brings to the table that his title winning predecessor did not.
More promising is the club's positive activity in the summer transfer market, which has seen some fairly big money moves for the likes of Harry Maguire, now set to start in the heart of defence, and Kelechi Iheanacho, the former Manchester City striker. They will complement the largely intact core of this Leicester team, which includes the likes of Jamie Vardy, Wes Morgan and Riyad Mahrez. These are all quality players who could thrive in just about any team in the league. The trouble is that beyond them the squad still looks closer to a second tier team than a top of the table side.
Ultimately Leicester have the look of a side that have marginally improved upon last season, but still face a number of challenges if they are to progress. Pre-season has not been promising, there is still a lot of work to be done if Leicester are going to consolidate their position. A top half finish will do them just fine.
Key Signing: Harry Maguire
Key Man: Jamie Vardy
Verdict: Will push for a top half finish, but face significant risk from teams lower down the table.
LIVERPOOL
Nickname: Reds
Ground: Anfield
Capacity: 54,074
Last season: 4th
Manager: Jurgen Klopp
Last season saw a marked improvement for Liverpool, and a return to the Champions League. With Jurgen Klopp, one of the hottest managers in the world today, the feeling at the club is finally one of genuine optimism and direction. Can he take this club back to the top?
Now it might seem like such statements are made every season, and there is something to that, especially with the dominance of ex Liverpool players in the pundit class, but the things Klopp accomplished at Dortmund are not to be sniffed at, when faced with the total monopoly of German football and sponsorship that is Bayern Munich. That they won the title and damn near won the Champions League should not be understated.
More importantly, this is a Liverpool team bristling with quality, from Mané to Firmino, and the new big money signing of Mo Salah. Then there is the story of Philippe Coutinho, still the essential Liverpool player. Coutinho currently looks dead set on pushing through a Barcelona transfer, though Liverpool are holding firm at the time of writing. His loss would be a big blow to the team
So what is the target for this season? The title is always on the mind of Liverpool fans. More realistic is another top four finish, and this year that looks a very achievable goal.
Key Signing: Mo Salah
Key Man: Sadio Mané
Verdict: Another top four finish on the cards.
MANCHESTER CITY
Nickname: Blues
Ground: Etihad Stadium
Capacity: 55,097
Last season: 3rd
Manager: Pep Guardiola
So what to make of this Manchester City team? On paper one of the deepest and strongest squads in the country. They finished a disappointing 3rd last season, with no major silverware, after spending a whopping £200 million in the transfer market. They have spent yet another £200 million this summer.
I've long been a vocal critic of Pep Guardiola, a manager who has only ever succeeded when inheriting a team that was already the best in the world, and has invariably left his club worse off than when they hired him. Regardless of whether you acknowledge these facts or buy into the hype, the simple fact is he has not gotten results, despite the fact that he has every resource in the world at his disposal.
He has the players. Sergio Aguero remains one of the world's best goalscorers. Kevin de Bruyne has joined a long list of neglected Chelsea youngsters to go on to become world class elsewhere. Kompany, Silva, Sané, Sterling... this is a squad packed to the rafters with quality in every position, and they have added to that abundance with the likes of Kyle Walker and Danilo, Benjamin Mendy and Bernardo Silva.
It's a squad that's up there with the best in the world on paper, with the money and facilities to accomplish anything. The only question mark remains the manager. Surely the club will not tolerate another season of failure. It's the title or bust for Pep.
Key Signing: Kyle Walker
Key Man: Sergio Agüero
Verdict: A title favourite, anything less would be a failure.
MANCHESTER UNITED
Nickname: Red Devils
Ground: Old Trafford
Capacity: 75, 643
Last season: 6th
Manager: Jose Mourinho
It seems as though the stars are beginning to align for Manchester United. They have capitalised on the foolishness of their competitors to acquire one of the best managers in the world in Jose Mourinho, one of the best young strikers in the world in Romelu Lukaku, and to top it all off they have added the hugely underrated midfield general Nemanja Matic. Add to this an already strong squad of Juan Mata, Paul Pogba, Anthony Martial and others, and this is starting to look like it could be their year.
Really, the only weakness remains their defence. Man U currently rely on Phil Jones, Eric Bailly, an ageing Antonio Valencia and Daley Blind, none of whom have really proven themselves as top class defenders. Victor Lindelof has been signed to bolster that backline, but had not have the most auspicious of starts in red. It is fortunate that they have one of the world's best goalkeepers in David de Gea to pick up the slack.
The current imperfections in the squad suggest that any ambitions of challenging the top clubs in Europe are still a ways off, but there will be time for that later. The target this season is very much to reclaim the Premier League title. Reassert domestic ascendancy, and then build on that to compete in Europe. That's what a big club is supposed to do, take note Chelsea board.
Key Signing: Romelu Lukaku
Key Man: David de Gea
Verdict: Genuine title contenders, should be there or thereabouts.
NEWCASTLE
Nickname: The Magpies, Toon
Ground: St James' Park
Capacity: 52,354
Last season: Promoted (1st)
Manager: Rafa Benitez
The Newcastle rollercoaster ride continues. Up and down and up again. This time, however, there is an altogether more positive atmosphere about the club. Mike Ashley has reconciled with the fans. Rafa is doing a decent job keeping everything together, and now they're back in the top flight, with a solid chance of staying up this time.
Do they have the squad to compete at this level? There is certainly talent in this side, particularly the mercurial Jonjo Shelvey, and he is joined by the likes of Matt Ritchie, Dwight Gayle and Jamaal Lascelles. These are solid players, but going into this summer there was the clear impression that reinforcement was needed, and it's not clear that they have really done enough.
The signings of Christian Atsu and Javier Manquillo are good additions for sure, but they have been unable to add the dependable top flight striker they were after, having failed to bring in Tammy Abraham as expected.
Where is all this going? Who knows. Newcastle on paper are a side that can achieve survival, but it's going to be difficult.
Key Signing: Christian Atsu
Key Man: Jonjo Shelvey
Verdict: A tough fight for survival awaits, but they should have enough about them.
SOUTHAMPTON
Nickname: Saints
Ground: St. Mary's Stadium
Capacity: 32,690
Last season: 8th
Manager: Mauricio Pellegrino
One of the Premier League's great success stories in recent years, Southampton's rise to the top has been hugely impressive. But a series of managerial changes and player departures has started to leave them looking a bit disjointed. A club that wishes to remain at the top needs to at some point consolidate what they have, and yet Southampton continue to turnover at a rate more befitting a club of less promise. Last season we predicted a slight regression into mid table, and they duly delivered. Now the challenge is for them to reverse the decline and build.
Mauricio Pellegrino, formerly of Manchester City, is the man now charged with taking the club forward. A fine choice with a history of success behind him. General consensus has it that he was hard done by at Manchester City, but at Southampton he'll have the patience and time to get his vision into practice.
In terms of signings, it's been a quiet summer compared to the rest of the Premier League. Mario Lemina from Juventus is the most notable of the signings. Instead the focus has been on keeping ahold of their key players, in particular Virgil van Dijk who has been linked with just about every top club in Europe and also Liverpool.
Fortunately for the most part Southampton have managed to maintain the key squad elements, the likes of Ryan Bertrand, Cedric, Fraser Forster, and striker Manolo Gabbiadini. The latter in particular will need to have a good season if Southampton are to meet expectations. The team's main flaw last season was a lack of goals. With Gabbiadini now entering a first full season with the club, fans will be hoping that he solves that particular problem.
Key Signing: Mario Lemina
Key Man: Manolo Gabbiadini
Verdict: Pellegrino to steady the ship, but too soon to push further up that table.
STOKE
Nickname: Potters
Ground: Britannia Stadium
Capacity: 28,384
Last season: 13th
Manager: Mark Hughes
After a good few years of incremental improvement, Stoke had seemed to be becoming a bit of a hot thing in the Premier League, with many expecting a push into the top 10 last season. So to have ultimately slumped to a 13th place finish is being seen as something of a disappointment, and a step backwards. Certainly one can't argue that Mark Hughes has done a very impressive job with this team. Stoke are after all no longer a team merely fighting for survival every season, and in shaking off the utilitarian ways of Tony Pulis they have managed to build a side that can play real football and play it well. Still even fans will have to admit that they have lost some of their recent lustre, and worrying times may lie ahead.
Perhaps spurred on by last season's unmet expectations, the club have been fairly active in the summer transfer market. They have made a solid 6 signings, most notably for Dutch defender Bruno Martins Indy, as well as former Manchester United and West Brom midfielder Darren Fletcher. They have also made two highly shrewd loan moves for Jese of PSG and Kurt Zouma of Chelsea. At the same time, the loss of key player Marko Arnautovic is a bitter blow, and perhaps an indication that even players are worried about the direction of the club.
So what to expect this season? Based on the strength of the squad and the track record of Mark Hughes, one would have to think they're too good to get sucked into the relegation battle. Still I'd fancy them for a slump back into the lower half of the table.
Key Signing: Bruno Martins Indi
Key Man: Joe Allen
Verdict: Could be a tricky season for Mark Hughes and his team.
SWANSEA CITY
Nickname: The Swans
Ground: Liberty Stadium
Capacity: 21,088
Last season: 15th
Manager: Paul Clement
It's all starting to go pear-shaped for Swansea City. The club has made a good account of itself over what has been a very solid top flight run, playing good football, claiming a few giant scalps, and generally becoming a real fixture in this league. But now the frustration is starting to seep through, with more backwards movement in the league and upheaval on and off the pitch yet again (a whopping 15 players out and 9 in over the summer).
Great credit to new manager Paul Clement, who came in part way through the last season and really turned around what could have been an even worse season, but he'll have his work cut out for him this year.
The loss of Gylfi Sigurdsson is a massive blow, and one that could push the club into a relegation tussle over the coming year. That Fernando Llorente might follow him out the door makes matters even worse. Loan signing Tammy Abraham looks like he'll have a great deal more pressure on him than might have been expected. The youngster broke all kinds of teenage goalscoring records in the Championship last season, let's see if he can bring that form to the top flight. If their options look thin up front, then at least they have solid depth to fall back on in the midfield, with the likes of Jordan Ayew, and last season's inspired signing of Tom Carroll.
There's a lot of new faces, and one would have to assume there will be a gelling process before we see this Swansea team come together. The question is do they have the time to develop, or will it all be too much for them this season?
Key Signing: Tammy Abraham
Key Man: Jordan Ayew
Verdict: Could find themselves sucked into a relegation battle of not careful.
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
Nickname: Spurs
Ground: Wembley
Capacity: 90,000
Last season: 2nd
Manager: Mauricio Pochettino
There's not much more than needs to be said about manager Mauricio Pochettino. The man was a phenomenal success at Southampton and he has carried that midas touch on to Tottenham. Last season was a remarkable feat, achingly close to the title, and another year of Champions League football to come.
With Chelsea taking their foot off the gas, one might have suspected that Tottenham would leap on the opportunity to stake their claim for their surrendered title. Yet this summer we have seen a strangely unambitious Tottenham, incredibly still yet to make any new signings. However unlike Chelsea they have managed to keep ahold of most of their key players, with only Kyle Walker so far moving for the exit. As such, their lack of activity may not necessarily be a problem, after all this was a very fine team last year and retains the same depth of quality as before.
The squad undoubtedly ranks among the strongest in the league, with the likes of Lloris, Dier, and Christian Eriksen all performers of the highest quality. But the keys to this team undoubtedly belong to Dele Alli and Harry Kane. Picking one out of the two of them as a key man for this team is a difficult task, so central are they both to the way this club plays. With a squad this good, and still largely intact from last season, anything really is possible.
Key Signing: N/A
Key Man: Harry Kane
Verdict: Will be right up there, top four and likely title contenders.
WATFORD
Nickname: Hornets
Ground: Vicarage Road
Capacity: 21,577
Last season: 13th
Manager: Marco Silva
The rollercoaster continues, another managerial change, and another summer of mass squad upheaval. This summer has seen them sign 9 new players and sell 11. Despite this madness, the team actually performed fairly decently last season, coming comfortably in the mid table and never really looking at danger of relegation. New manager Marco Silva has created a sense of calm about the club and looks the right man to take this club forward.
Indeed they have signed well this summer, bringing in the likes of Tom Cleverley on a permanent basis, as well as Nathanial Chalobah and Burnley's Andre Gray. The addition of former hot prospect Will Hughes is also a tantalising move, if he can recapture the promise that was shown prior to the cruciate ligament injury he could be one of the finds of the season. The addition of so many central midfielders suggests a switch to a 4-3-3, which will give their lead man Stefano Okaka room to shine. At the moment this squad looks a little thin at the back, but their quality in midfield and attack should make them good fun to watch this season.
They won't have an easy going of it this season, but they should survive. It's important to hit the ground running or they could find themselves sucked into the relegation battle early on.
Key Signing: Tom Cleverley
Key Man: Stefano Okaka
Verdict: Lower half of the table but should survive.
WEST BROMWICH ALBION
Nickname: Baggies
Ground: The Hawthorns
Capacity: 26,852
Last season: 10th
Manager: Tony Pulis
The Tony Pulis project continues, and indeed the nails from Wales appears to have worked his magic on West Brom. From previous relegation battlers, Pulis has built his customary solid mid table side, and ultimately ended up squeaking into the top half last season. History tells us that pushing beyond that will be a tricky ask, but West Brom have built a fine team and should give a good account of themselves again.
Tony Pulis is one of the very best when it comes to winning Premier League points with only meager resources at your disposal. He did it with Stoke, and he did it with Crystal Palace. With Pulis at the helm, West Brom will be safe from relegation. The question now is can they push on and make a case for the top half of the table.
The loss of Darren Fletcher is a big blow, but they have replaced experience with experience by signing Gareth Barry, who now becomes arguably the key player in this West Brom side. Meanwhile the club's move for Jay Rodriguez may well solve their goalscoring issues. Those familiar with Pulis teams will however point out that great emphasis is rarely placed on the front man.
The extra spice to the tale is the upcoming expiration of Pulis, and the relatively new club owner Guochuan Lai. How will that play out? Does Lai want to keep this a Pulis team, or is the ambition somewhere else? Time, and good results, will tell.
Key Signing: Gareth Barry
Key Man: Gareth Barry
Verdict: A comfortable mid table but unlikely to break the top 10 again.
WEST HAM UNITED
Nickname: The Hammers
Ground: London Stadium
Capacity: 60,000
Last season: 11th
Manager: Slaven Bilić
A solid mid table finish was perhaps not what was expected following the previous season's heroics. Many had been expecting the Hammers to inaugurate their new home at the Olympic stadium, now inexplicably renamed London Stadium, with a genuine push to the next level. European qualification was the aim, and with bumper crowds and the resources for squad building, it looked a realistic one.
Bilić has been getting a lot of credit for the fine work that he has done during his tenure as West Ham manager, but he'll be under pressure this season to keep the momentum going. West Ham has always been a club with ambition, and that is the case again this year as they step back out into the transfer market. The signing of experienced Man City defender Pablo Zabaleta will be a fine move, but the key additions here are the signings of Marko Arnautovic and Javier Hernandez (Chicharito). Joe Hart joining the club on loan is also a very fine choice. Mark Noble is still a key figure at this club, along with Andre Ayew. Indeed they look reasonably well stocked up front, while their summer business will hopefully shore up that thin defence.
So when will everything settle down? That remains to be seen. While this squad is by no means bad, it perhaps has not improved enough to suggest that a renewed push into the top tier of the league is a realistic goal for this season. With increased scrutiny on his job, Bilic is unlikely to have much leeway either. This will perhaps be another season of consolidation, rather than progress.
Key Signing: Javier Hernandez
Key Man: Mark Noble
Verdict: Another mid table finish on the cards.
Predicted table:
1. Manchester United
2. Manchester City
3. Tottenham
4. Liverpool
5. Chelsea
6. Arsenal
7. Everton
8. Southampton
9. West Ham
10. West Brom
11. Leicester
12. Bournemouth
13. Watford
14. Newcastle
15. Stoke
16. Burnley
17. Huddersfield
18. Swansea
19. Crystal Palace
20. Brighton
Monday, 14 August 2017
Directed by Rupert Goold
Written by James Graham
Starring Bertie Carvel, Richard Coyle
Theatre Almeida / Duke of York
When you're writing a play about politics, there is a danger in turning your script into a soapbox. Many writers give in to this temptation, using the opportunity to press an obvious personal agenda in a way that's often naked and self-serving. But audiences don't go to the theatre to watch a cartoon. Excessive pandering can be a turn off, even where I actually agree with the opinion being expressed.
So you can imagine that when a play is dealing with a particularly prominent and controversial figure, that danger is even greater. Rupert Murdoch is undoubtedly one such figure, and it would have been entirely too easy to pander to the liberal London theatre crowd by portraying the man as some kind of monster. Murdoch has spent a career building the vast media empire News Corporation, and in doing so has earned himself no small share of revulsion for ethically questionable activities like phone-hacking, fake news, and a troubling influence over British politicians. Deserved though the public's general animosity may be, if I had walked into this theatre and spent 3 hours watching some anti-Murdoch circlejerk, I'd have been disappointed. Fortunately, James Graham is far too deft a writer to take such an obvious approach to this story.
Anyone who has seen This House, probably Graham's most famous work, will know roughly what to expect. Graham has shown himself to be a playwright singularly capable of bringing dry subjects as politics to life in a way that's both crowd-pleasing and insightful, whilst never feeling preachy. With Ink, Graham delivers yet again, with a production that's as energetic and funny as anything you will see this year.
The focus is on Murdoch's early years in the UK, his acquisition of the struggling The Sun newspaper, and the tumultuous road to turning it into the biggest paper in the country. At most the script only lightly alludes to his future controversies and political ambitions. Instead Murdoch is portrayed as an outsider, an irreverent upstart looking to shake up the old boys' club in the journalistic industry, and whose single-mindedness and ruthless business instincts allow him to succeed.
Murdoch is certainly not portrayed as some kind of saint; he's unashamedly arrogant and frequently puts his ethical views secondary to his ambitions, but Graham finds the kernel of humanity that motivates this drive, and presents us with an individual that is neither likeable nor detestable, but simply is. Taking such an approach is a wise decision by the writer, presenting a story that's less controversial, and yet still cuts to the core of what makes Rupert Murdoch so notable. It's also a far more entertaining story than what might otherwise have been. True to form, Graham packs his script full of wit, pithy observations, ostentatious montages... this is rock and roll politics with the tone and style to match.
Equally important to Ink's success is the quality of the performances, most notably Bertie Carvel whose Murdoch portrayal leaves an indelible impression. More than simply some likeness or impression, Carvel's performance is an entirely distinct creation, yet captures such an essence of the character that it becomes impossible to separate the two in the mind. Every now and then you see a portrayal so captivating that it replaces your mental image of that person. Carvel has achieved that here, and will surely be a contender for the Oliviers.
The combination of strong script, memorable acting and adventurous production make this an easy recommendation. This is an excellent play, possibly the best in what has been a very strong year for theatre so far. Bertie Carvel is sure to be decorated for his performance, while James Graham further establishes himself as unequalled in political storytelling. Ink is now set to transfer to the West End. Go get yourself some tickets.
Friday, 28 July 2017
The first months of the Donald Trump presidency have seen little in the way of legislative accomplishment. Without getting too speculative, there are many reasons why this Congress and this White House have not been especially productive, but chief among those reasons would have to be the heavy focus to date on healthcare. Indeed it has been all over the news, to the point where even the politically apathetic are probably aware that Trump and the Republicans are trying to do something with healthcare. The headlines have been full of buzzwords like "Trumpcare", and "Obamacare repeal". Indeed Trump himself has declared frequently that Obamacare is already "dead". But what does all this actually mean, what exactly is/has/will be done, and what does it mean for the American patient?
What is Obamacare?
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act ("ACA"), frequently referred to as "Obamacare" was a wide-ranging reform of American healthcare passed into law by then President Barack Obama. I will refer to it as Obamacare in this article, as this is the term with which most will be familiar.
Without getting too bogged down in the detail provisions of this law include children being able to stay on their parents' healthcare plan until the age of 26, greater protections for patients who would otherwise be refused insurance for having "pre-existing conditions", and tighter regulations on when patients can and can't be refused care. It greatly expanded the existing Medicaid program to cover anyone below a certain income threshold, and provided significant investment to medical research and healthcare infrastructure in order to bring the system into the 21st Century (these included, for example, online health insurance exchanges to give people greater freedom to find a plan that fits their needs).
All of this was paid for through a combination of new taxes, mostly targeted at the wealthy, and through a so-called "insurance mandate", which ultimately was more of a tax on people who did not buy health insurance, therefore incentivising otherwise healthy people to buy insurance and therefore contribute to the insurance pool for those who need it.
The effect of this law has been to expand healthcare coverage in the United States, achieving nearly universal coverage, and to control rising premium costs, which have largely stabilised since the law's passage. As a result of these benefits, Obamacare is generally a very popular law, scoring a high plurality or low majority of support in most recent polls, comparable with most laws that get passed. The specific provisions themselves have proven to be wildly popular in polls.
Obamacare is fairly popular, so why do Republicans oppose?
Describing the Republican opposition to Obamacare is difficult. For sure there are many things that can be improved with Obamacare, many things that need to be fixed, many bugs to be remedied. Strangely, these problems never get mentioned by Republicans, instead they have objected to the law from its inception for other reasons, including:
- It was rushed into law, despite being debated over a 10 month period;
- It was passed without any Republican input, despite the fact that votes were held on over 100 Republican amendments, many of which were ultimately included in the law, and despite the fact that many of the law's key provisions were based on previous Republican proposals;
- The so-called "insurance mandate", despite this having been a key pillar of Republican healthcare policy since the 1960s, part of their national proposal in the 1990s, and part of many Republican Governor's statewide policies;
- The expansion of Medicaid as an overreach of Government, despite many Republican Governors opting into the new expansion, and doggedly defending it during the current "repeal" debates;
- New taxes.
So they're not even voting to repeal Obamacare?
Nope, they're voting to defund specific parts of it, a process which can be just as easily undone by the next Government, and has absolutely no longstanding effect on the Obamacare law itself. None of these laws repeal Obamacare, they just defund healthcare in America.
So why is Trump calling Obamacare "dead"?
Because he's a salesman, and he knows that the only thing voters care about is the perception. Make no mistake, if he could repeal Obamacare and replace it with an identical law called "Trumpcare", he would do it.
So do these bills actually do anything?
Yes, still very much so. The actual impact depends on the bill in question, but range from taking away access to healthcare from 22 million people (in AHA and BCRA) to 16 million people (in HCFA). All the bills in question would increase premiums significantly.
So these bills may not be an actual repeal of Obamacare, but their effect on sick people would still be significant. The good news is they can be easily undone by the next Government.
So where do we go from here?
Hard to say. The two likely scenarios are:
- Republicans pass some form of minor budgetary adjustment, declare Obamacare "dead". Next President just refunds Obamacare and we forget all about this charade.
- Republicans are unable to come up with a compromise and move on, defund healthcare services and then blame "Obamacare" for the deficiency.
Thursday, 6 July 2017
Directed by Sam Mendes
Written by Jez Butterworth
Starring Paddy Considine, Laura Donnelly, Stuart Graham, Fra Fee
Theatre Royal Court/Gielgud Theatre
It's by far the hottest ticket of the year so far. The Ferryman sold out instantly when it began its original run at the Royal Court Theatre. Now thanks to a mix of glowing reviews and the desire to thoroughly milk a cash-cow, Ferryman is transferring to the Gielgud Theatre on Shaftesbury, meaning those of us not fortunate enough to catch the fever first time around have a second chance to see what all the fuss is about.
Undoubtedly, part of the reason tickets sold out so quickly (and presumably one of the reasons they are so keen to recoup their expenses) is that Ferryman marks the much vaunted return to theatre of director Sam Mendes, former artistic director of the Donmar, more recently the Academy Award winning director of American Beauty and, of course, the recent James Bond movies. But for those of us who really love our theatre, Ferryman is at least as exciting for having been written by Jez Butterworth, last seen at the Royal Court with his excellent 2008 production Jerusalem. Does this ultimately justify being the fastest selling play in Royal Court history? Not necessarily, but hype aside Ferryman proves itself to be well worth the price of admission.
Set in 1980s Ireland against the backdrop of hunger strikes and IRA violence. The focus is on Considine's Quinn Carney, an ex IRA man now retired to life on his farm, surrounded by extended family and a bevy of foul-mouthed kids taking whisky with their breakfast. The core of the tension surrounds his relationship with Laura Donnelly's Caitlin, married to Carney's brother who has been missing for a decade, presumed killed by the IRA.
The quality of production is outstanding right from the start. The elaborate set design feels lived in and familiar. The lighting is ingeniously choreographed to unobtrusively create atmosphere, casting dancing shadows around the stage at key moments. The most striking example comes during an early moment of tenderness between the two lead characters, sharing a blindfolded slow dance by the light of the early morning. The heavily detailed set remains constant over the course of the evening, and yet the production team manage to introduce a remarkable level of flexibility, shifting mood and changing scenes between night and day, different furniture configurations and entrances, all in a seamless dream-like fashion. Sam Mendes shows here that he is still imposingly confident on a theatre stage, a man who knows exactly what he wants the audience to see and experience down to the smallest detail.
The cast is impressive, both in size and quality. A lovable noise of Irish characters, dancing, singing and sharing in bucolic family moments. It could easily have come off as a lazy parade of stereotypes, but it all gives way to a script far more deft and ambitious in scope than another writer might have delivered. Everything is presented in a larger context of history, tradition, familial tragedies, ancient feuds. At times it feels like there's so much baggage weighing these people down, that no wonder there are so many of them on stage, they simply can't leave.
Through the various weaving narratives and character arcs, a sense of profound loss unites their stories. The missing husband and brother, the doddering firebrand Republican who never stopped idealising a missing brother from childhood, the sleepy great aunt who intermittently emerges from senility to reminisce of lost romances, and lost history. By the end of the evening it will be clear why the name Ferryman has been chosen; an entire cast of characters appearing stagnant in a state of emotional limbo, waiting for something to snap so that they can finally move on.
As with Butterworth's other plays, this exceeds the sum of its narrative parts. More than just the family drama or period piece politics, this is a story that plays with your sense of nostalgia, evokes an all too relatable sense of hopeless longing, and builds a relentless intensity right until its denouement.
A play like this runs every risk of being dismissed as just another hype production, a fad of the moment, but that would do a disservice to what is ultimately another very fine addition to Butterworth's body of work. There is brilliance here, an excellent piece of theatre that I can wholly recommend anyone to take the time to enjoy. It's run at the Gielgud has just been extended, and if the tickets keep flying out the doors there's every reason to believe it will extend yet again. Make sure you catch it before it ends.
Tuesday, 20 June 2017
Genre Trip-hop
Label Parlophone
Producers Gorillaz, The Twilite Tone, Remi Kabaka Jr, Fraser T Smith

Gorillaz, once the party-album mainstay of radio charts the world over, have gone a full seven years since releasing their last real album, Plastic Beach (unless you count The Fall, which we don't). After much speculation, the lengthy hiatus has come to an end, and the result is Humanz.
The last time we saw them, this brainchild of Damon Albarn and Jamie Hewlett were at something of a crossroad. Plastic Beach, arguably the best Gorillaz album, marked a shift away from their more crowd-pleasing, radio-friendly roots towards something with a bit more political and intellectual direction behind it. This shift was reflected in the notably greater variety and experimentation in the music, something which was applauded by critics, but alienated some longterm fans. With Humanz now upon us, my first question was what direction they have taken in the time since.
The first thing you notice with this album? This is a long album, some 26 tracks. Back when I was a lad, 20-track albums were common, but in recent years the trend has very much been for quality over quantity, with 10 or so songs seeming to be a popular consensus. So the quantity of music that has been produced here is quite notable in itself.
So it is surprising, considering the great variety and experimentation of Plastic Beach, that their considerably longer follow up somehow ends up feeling more one-note and unadventurous. This is very much a move back in the hip-hop direction for Gorillaz. The problem is that the band was never really pure hip-hop, it was the mix of hip-hop sensibilities with catchy pop hooks and clever genre blending that made their early work so memorable, and there is a distinct lack of this trademark creativity in Humanz.
Now of course, there's nothing wrong with making a more traditional hip-hop album, but these are just bland songs. You could easily eliminate a good 10-15 of these tracks without anybody noticing, such is the derivative nature of so much of this work. Instead, the highlights come on the few occasions when Gorillaz does try to move into more unconventional, experimental genres.
Andromeda is the clear stand-out of the album, sounding a bit like a darker, more apathetic refrain of Melancholy Hill, with some really great funk vocals thrown in. It's the only track that really compares to some of their older material. We Got the Power is probably the next best, standing out for its energy and driving beat, but even that track ultimately ends up going nowhere in its short 2 minute running time.
That's not to say that these songs are bad. Strobelite is a nice retro throwback, while Busted and Blue is a sweet, if strangely out of place acoustic track. Hallelujah Money is the marmite equivalent of music, "interesting" to some, "weird ass" to others, and generally off-putting for its overt political nature. The best that can really be said about the music is that there are plenty of interesting moments, most of which end up going nowhere, and get bogged down by the relentless tedium of the rest of the album. One gets the impression that Albarn came up with a handful of decent hooks, couldn't think of how to finish them, and just threw in some generic hip-hop beat to fill in the gaps.
One also gets the impression that Albarn is trying a bit too hard to come up with an album concept for our times and political situation. These songs are the most overtly political Gorillaz have ever done, with references to the corruption of wealth, and "building walls". Allegedly the record label made them remove many explicit Trump references before release. Don't get me wrong, I sympathise with the message, but this is just so heavy handed. So apocalyptic and dreary. And that's probably why the music sounds so dreary and bland, it's part of the concept. This is ultimately an album of dystopia and pessimism, and the music seems so focused on pushing that aesthetic that it lacks any real heart or inspiration.
So this is perhaps an example of a musician putting the message before the music. The best artists find ways to marry the artform to the message in ways that complement one another, but Gorillaz have not managed to do that here. Most of these tracks are so indistinguishable and bland, and the fact that there are so many of them means the album just drags and drags. This album would be twice as good if you just cut it down to 10 songs long, but even then, the simple fact is that there is little here anyone will remember in a year's time.
Gorillaz's workmanlike new album Humanz sets dutifully about creating a party-album for the end of the world, but lacks the band's trademark sparkle or creativity. The result is a largely forgettable collection of musical musings that are never quite as profound as the intend to be, never quite as cohesive as they would like to be. I've been waiting patiently for new Gorillaz, but this feels like an album that did not need to be made.
Must Listen :
Andromeda
We Got the Power
Strobelite
Thursday, 15 June 2017
Created by Aziz Ansari, Alan Yang
Network Netflix
Starring Aziz Ansari
Genre Comedy-drama
Running Time Varies
It is not often that I feel moved to write about TV shows here. A beginning of year preview, an end of year round-up, but actual reviews? The Ephemeric probably only has about a handful of them. Part of the reason for this is that a TV show is an ongoing thing, and reviewing something that hasn't ended and is still subject to change is inherently riddled with problems. For this same reason, it's even more unusual for me to review a second season of a TV show; in fact I'm pretty sure I have never done so. Well today I am going to make an exception, because the second season of Master of None really needs to be discussed.
This is, of course, the second season of the Netflix Original, written by and starring Aziz Ansari. I have to preface any review of this show by saying that I have never been a particularly big fan of Ansari. Never found his stand-up all that funny, always found his characters one-note and annoying. The only thing I have ever really appreciated him in was Parks and Recreation, and even there he was mostly playing the standard Ansari character: a shrill and metrosexual parody of the 2010s male. Master of None has changed my view.
The show's first season was a perfectly solid season of TV. Ansari and his co-writer Alan Yang set out to work Ansari's observational wit into a narrative format, and the result was hard not to like. The episodes were a little inconsistent to be fair, and far too often felt like a forced and ill-fitting vehicle for the material. Nevertheless they managed to portray what life is like in the 2010s for young adults, probably better than any other show had done before. Each episode initiated a conversation on contemporary topics like social media, modern dating, and of course the show's recurring theme of foodie culture. It is a commentary on the modern phenomenon of optimisation culture, the fixation we have on going to the top restaurants on Yelp, the hottest vacation spots on TripAdvisor, the trendiest outfits on Pinterest, etc and then sharing our adventures with those around us. It was far from perfect, but very much a show of its time. As much as I enjoyed season 1, the second season easily surpasses its predecessor in just about every way, and so much so that honestly I am a little bit blown away.
The first thing that comes to mind upon watching the second season is that this writing team has become considerably more proficient at crafting a story. This was already in evidence towards the end of season 1, but this year they absolutely nail it right from the first moment. Gone are the days when episodes would seem to exist solely to provide a platform for the jokes, the episodes here are all entirely meaningful, relevant, and successfully complemented by Ansari's sense of humour.
What's more remarkable is just how adventurous they have become with the format of the show. The first episode is filmed entirely in black and white, in Italian with subtitles. Another episode barely even features Ansari, but instead is split between three independent settings with random people in the city of New York. Another episode takes a break from the main narrative to explore 10 years worth of Thanksgivings between Ansari's character and his best friend. Throughout the season, the writers show great audacity to play with the structure and tone of episodes in ways that would never be done on regular television. While a more traditional plotline certainly runs through the season, each episode ultimately feels like its own thing, and are all the more memorable for it. Simply put, this is the boldest television I've seen in a very long time; a continual series of moments and ideas that will stick with you long after the episode ends.
Ansari himself has even matured as an actor. A more toned down Ansari is more relatable and likeable, without losing any of his signature quirks and charisma. Surprisingly, they even manage to reinvent Ansari as a credible romantic lead, with a romantic subplot that in all honesty is one of the most engaging I can remember in a TV series. A great deal of credit for this needs to go to Ansari's co-star Alessandra Mastronardi, who is an absolutely captivating presence whenever she is on-screen, a beguiling star turn from an actress I suspect we will be seeing a lot more of from this point hence.
But an extremely underrated component of what makes this show so good is its high quality of production. There is some remarkable filmmaking on show in these episodes, gorgeous visuals and cinematography, and highly inventive direction. One episode features a series of moments from Ansari's adventures on Tinder, spliced together into a single evening. Another stunning moment features a four minute long-take of Ansari's Uber ride home following a particularly emotional revelation, to devastating effect. The soundtrack and general use of music is among the best I've ever seen in a TV show, while the casting has been brilliant, right down to the smallest role (my girlfriend informs me that the Italian actors used are fairly prominent stars in Europe - an indication of just how meticulous they have been). Even the somewhat awkward presence of Ansari's real parents instead of actual actors can't put a blemish on the show; so finely balanced is the tone of the writing that these moments come across as charming rather than cringe-worthy.
This is prestige television at its finest. Master of None is a dramatic improvement on its first season, establishing itself as probably the best comedy on TV in many years, and arguably the best show of any genre on TV at the moment. Ansari is establishing himself as one of the finest writers in the industry today, and a man of impeccable sensibilities. This is a crowning achievement, and a star-making turn for those involved.
Monday, 12 June 2017
Almost exactly one year ago after the Brexit vote, The Ephemeric wrote that David Cameron's self-destruction was a folly of historic proportions, a humiliating own-goal that would ensure Cameron went down as one of the great punchlines of British politics. Well it hasn't quite taken Theresa May a year to outdo her predecessor. David Cameron can breathe a sigh of relief, because this latest blunder will take some beating.
What just happened?
When Theresa May called a snap general election two months ago, it was a little bit of a flip-flop on her part seeing as she had said unequivocally on numerous occasions that she would not call an election, reasonably making the case that now was not the time for political games. Still, with the Conservative party some 25 points ahead in the polls at the time, May evidently had decided that she could live with being branded a political opportunist, so long as it helped cement her authority in Westminster.
Indeed such a polling margin was practically unprecedented in British politics. People were expecting the Tories to expand their somewhat meagre 5 seat majority by as many as 100 seats, taking their MP total in excess of 400. There was no question of whether the Tories would win the election, but whether they would expand their majority by a lot, or a little. So when that exit poll dropped on Thursday, showing that the Tories would not in fact expand their majority at all, but lose seats, and lose their majority, it sent a nuclear shockwave through British politics.
This was an election that did not need to be called at all. No one wanted another election. The Tories already had an outright majority, their first in 20 years no less. Theresa May threw all that away in just a few months as leader of the party. It's an astonishing tale of hubris and comeuppance, and one which will certainly see Theresa May go down as one of the shortest serving, and most ridiculed, Prime Ministers in UK history.
So how did this happen? How did the Tories throw away such a commanding lead in such a short time? And what lessons can they take away from this crushing defeat?
Were the polls wrong?
First let's talk about that unassailable polling lead. Even though the polls showed a 25 point lead, it was never actually as solid as that sounds. To begin with, you have to assume that just a few months into the job, Theresa May was still experiencing a bit of a honeymoon period in the opinion polls, a very widely studied effect. Then there was the unusually high number of undecided voters on the polls, almost 1 in 3 on some polls. That is astoundingly high. A lead of 20% means much less when at least 30% haven't even decided who to vote for yet, you can't possibly make an accurate prediction from that. Honestly, that no one in the Conservative party picked up on such basic polling issues suggests either an incredible lack of expertise, or an incredible lack of communication between staff.
But the biggest single reason for the polling upset is this: the pollsters themselves didn't trust their numbers. Polls were showing a close race between the Tories and Labour for weeks, but pollsters didn't believe that young people would actually show up to the extent they were finding, so they fudged the numbers.
They were wrong, young people showed up, and in record numbers. Londoners showed up in record numbers. Angry Remain voters showed up in record numbers, and they got their revenge on the Conservative party that has spent the past year ridiculing and ignoring their opinions.
Was this a Brexit election?
As a Remain voter, it would be opportunistic and easy for me to come out at this moment and say that this was a second referendum on Brexit, so instead I'll let Theresa May herself say it. The leader of the Conservative party called this a "Brexit election", said that Brexit was "on the ballot". So you know what, I'll take her at her word on that, and boy have the voters spoken clearly. They reject Theresa May's vision of extreme Brexit.
The numbers show this quite clearly. Conservative vote share collapsing in Remain-voting areas, losing 10% share in super conservative Chelsea, and losing Kensington (!) to Labour. To my American friends, the Tories losing Kensington is like Trump losing Alabama. Theresa May's party has been routed in former Conservative strongholds that voted Remain. Add to this the decimation of the UKIP voter share, and the gain of seats by pro-EU parties like the Liberal Democrats, and it really is undeniable; this was indeed a Brexit election, and the voters have told May in no uncertain terms they don't like what they're seeing.
This is not just the view of the left-wing. Former Tory MP George Osborne says this election threw hard Brexit "in the rubbish bin". Several prominent party members have now come out as recognising hard Brexit as leading the Conservative party to "political ruin". The Tories had inexplicably forgotten just how barely the Brexit vote was won (and not even the hard Brexit they've been pursuing mind you, but a generic insert-your-own-fantasy-Brexit) and ignored any voice of dissent. That has cost them dearly now.
Other factors?
But in fairness, Brexit alone was not the only reason for defeat. There was the disastrous Tory manifesto, including such crowd pleasers as dementia tax and taking away free school lunches from children. There was the way that Theresa May refused to attend political debates, and seemingly hid herself away from the public in the final weeks of the campaign. It's that hubris again, thinking you can just avoid the voters and have their support, thinking you can propose horribly abusive policies and expect the average voter to either be unaware or ignorant of what you're doing, and it's just weak leadership to avoid responsibility as May has repeatedly done. This was a disastrously run campaign from start to finish.
And then there was the Trump effect. Theresa May has had a Donald Trump problem for a long time, but the final straw came in the wake of the recent terrorist attack on London when Donald Trump launched his appalling attack on the city and its Mayor. Theresa May said nothing. She would not stand up for her own people when attacked, even in the wake of this horrific act of violence. This is an utter disgrace, and even now she continues to push for a State visit for the President.
The sad fact is that Theresa May's blind Brexit obsession makes her pretty much dependent on Trump as a trade partner, so she'll tolerate whatever he does, no matter how distasteful, no matter how much it betrays her own people. It's an embarrassing and subservient relationship, one which begs the question: if your economic policy is dependent on you abandoning your ideals and principles, and sucking up to a hostile authoritarian, maybe it's not a policy worth pursuing.
Conclusion
All of this together paints a clear picture. An unpopular Prime Minister so blindly and foolhardily set on her destructive Brexit that she ignores her own people, that she refuses to debate or show even a modicum of respect to the Democratic process, that she refuses to stand up for her country or its ideals, that she betrays the dignity of her own people for the sake of bottom-feeding off a hostile foreign leader.
So what lessons can the Tories take from this?
- For the love of God, stop calling elections that you don't need, it clearly never ends well;
- Don't force on us a Brexit with probably not even 52% support as if it had 90% support;
- If you want the job, show up for the damn interview;
- We aren't fucking idiots, you won't win our support with lame catchphrases and evasive answers.
In the meantime, the people of Britain have turned out in record numbers and exercised their democratic right with clear voice. They have reminded all politicians that we are not ignorant fools, that we can not be taken for granted, and that we demand responsible, considered actions from our leaders. It's time for the Prime Minister to start listening.
Monday, 5 June 2017
We are now one week away from the election that nobody asked for, but that has somehow been thrust upon us. The British public can be forgiven if voter fatigue is beginning to set in, but don't give up now, this election still matters. The difference between the various parties could not be more pronounced, and those are differences that will effect every person in this country on a very direct level. This year, The Ephemeric is unreservedly endorsing the Liberal Democrats, and here's why.
Two years ago Britain was in prime position, a powerhouse bridging the gap between the world's largest economic centres of America, Asia and Europe. The nation was as prosperous as it had been in years, with living conditions on the mend after years of financial squeeze, and British soft power was arguably greater than that of any other nation.
Today Britain is in a far more precarious position, having voted to leave its largest trading partner, necessitating an uneasy economic dependence on formerly hostile Governments like Russia and Turkey, not to mention a more insular America. Currency valuation has plummeted, growth has slowed, wage growth has stagnated. An increasingly divided Britain has presented the very real concern over the future of our union, and public services have suffered as a result.
And what are the various political parties proposing to fix this mess? Theresa May's Conservative Party appears to be living in a fantasy-land where the country is coming together and enjoying the prosperous afterglow of Brexit. Her campaign promises have been an astonishing mix of dementia tax, taking away free school lunches from our children, and other awful ideas, all of which does little to distract from her wilfully blind obsession that we keep driving over the Brexit cliff, regardless of the consequences.
Corbyn's Labour has not been much better on Brexit, but to their credit they are at least recognising the need for public debate and consideration of the hard facts of any final deal. So if Theresa May's Brexit policy is akin to riding a dirt bike blindfolded while holding a chainsaw, at least Corbyn is removing the blindfold. However a vote for Corbyn also means tolerating the largest tax burden since World War II, and for some inexplicable reason a re-nationalisation of several industries, for no apparent reason. Let's not sugarcoat it, both of these main parties' policy proposals are pretty insane. From an economic perspective, the Conservative Party is marginally less insane, but they make up for it with their manic cult of Brexit, arguably more damaging than anything Corbyn is suggesting.
Then there are the party leaders themselves. Corbyn has made controversial statements in the past that could be seen as sympathising with the IRA, and has been dogged by disturbing links to anti-semitism. Meanwhile Theresa May's illiberal tendencies are leading us straight into one of the worst inequality crises of a generation. Her ignorant crackdown on digital freedom amounts to a Government takeover of the internet. Her gleeful embrace of the UKIP xenophobes, her cloying sucking up to the authoritarian dictators of the world (presumably to help support her Brexit addiction) places us on the wrong side of history. Her constant silence whenever Donald Trump attacks our country and its values is nothing short of a national disgrace. There is being diplomatic, and then there is being weak, a good leader knows where to draw the line.
Quite frankly, serious questions have to be asked of Theresa May's competence. The Tories began this campaign with a 25% lead, which has since dwindled to 5%. Much of this has to be attributed to what can only be described as one of the worst campaigns in political history, which has included a dependence on lame catchphrases (#strong&stable, #winningeverywhere, "red white and blue Brexit", ad nauseum). Two years ago everyone mocked Ed Miliband for repeating the same slogan over and over during an interview. That's basically been the entirety of May's campaign. This all culminated in a final week where Theresa May has apparently been in hiding, refusing to join politicians' debates, and cancelling interviews and public appearances. If she can't handle a fluffy morning talk show, how is she going to handle Putin and Brexit negotiations?
But having said all of that, the rationale of this endorsement is simple. For all their ideological differences, there is one big thing the two main parties have in common: they are both promising to close England off from the rest of the world, reversing the ideals of free market liberalism and globalism that have allowed Britain to prosper. That should utterly disqualify them in the eyes of any economically literate individual, and means I simply can not in good conscience endorse either one.
Ultimately there is only one national party looking even remotely like grownups during this election, the Liberal Democrats. They're the only party insisting on a fair Brexit deal, or even no Brexit if a reasonable result can not be attained. Since when is "looking before you leap" a controversial position? They're the only party offering the British public a say on the final Brexit deal that will determine the course of our country. The last referendum on a generic Brexit only just squeaked by, so by what bizarre stretch of logic are we to think that anything near a majority supports Theresa May's extreme and hard Brexit? Theresa May is abusing a slim majority support for a generic concept as a rubber stamp for whatever specific and extreme proposal she wants, and there is nothing at all democratic about that.
The Liberal Democrats are the only party proposing moderate spending cuts, as well as moderate revenue increases (a 1p tax rise), and the only ones who recognise the need to empower the middle class, without stifling the creativity of free enterprise. In a political climate where it has become unpopular to embrace time-tested evidence-based policy, the Liberal Democrats are the only party standing up for common sense economics and social progressivism. In a world where polarisation to the radical extremes of ideology has become mainstream, the Liberal Democrats are champions of a new breed of "radical centrism", the idea that evidence and reason should dictate policy rather than partisan politics, and that compromise with those who disagree with you is a sign of strength, not weakness.
No one will pretend that any party is perfect, but hard times like these call for calm, rational leadership. It calls for leadership that does what works, rather than what will help win the next election. Most importantly, we need leaders who will uphold the ideals of our free nation in the face of external and internal threat. Right now the Liberal Democrats are the only party stepping up to the plate. They may not win the election, but we fully encourage everyone to make a point and vote for the sensible and well thought-out policy that we deserve.
Wednesday, 31 May 2017
So much noteworthy new music, so little time. Looking for a new jam? I hear you buddy. The summer is now upon us, and as such we will be doing the Spring Music Round-Up, a rough and ready summary of some of the most interesting new releases of the recent past.
Specifically we will be looking at the new albums from Amy Macdonald, The xx, and Father John Misty. Let's dive right in.
"Under Stars - Amy Macdonald" Album Review
Genre Pop-rock
Emerging onto the scene back in 2007, Amy Macdonald represented the most unusual of things, a young girl who wanted to become a pop-star by merit of her exceptional musical talent, rather than by sex-appeal and generic production. And a talent she was. That debut album, This is the Life, went on to receive critical acclaim.
Her subsequent albums have been a little more mixed, often veering closer to what might be described as a mainstream sound at the cost of her honest folk charm. Her latest, Under Stars returns some of the soul of her debut, without ever really fulfilling her promise as a songwriter.
Under Stars does something quite strange, and ultimately confusing. There are eleven tracks on this album, and then the album includes almost all of them a second time, in acoustic form. Having two versions of every song makes it a little tricky to appropriately appraise the album as a whole, especially when almost without fail the acoustic versions are superior to the originals. One gets the impression that Macdonald is torn between appeasing those who liked her more stripped-down debut, and those who want something a bit more commercial and poppy, so she releases a version of each song for both sets of fans.
There are two obvious stand out tracks on the album. First, particularly in its acoustic form, is Down by the Water, a gorgeously crafted tune which compares favourably with her bigger hits from past albums. But the most pleasant surprise of all has to be Macdonald's cover of the Bruce Springsteen classic I'm on Fire, a cover which achieves that rare feat of matching and possibly even surpassing the original. The rest of the album may be something of a mixed bag, but these two tracks alone make it worth the purchase.
"I See You - The xx" Album Review
Genre Dream-Pop
The xx are not a band that needs much introduction, the London-based group have gone from humble indie beginnings to achieve widespread recognition and awards.
Their sound is distinctively understated, insular, often nearly pure acoustic. It works well for them, but after two albums there had been some suggestion that the music starting to get a bit derivative of itself, not to mention all the imitations that have sprung up since their debut. So much so that several members of the band had opted to take a break and explore their own solo careers, most notably Jamie xx whose debut solo album In Colour was a huge success in its own right. If the intention was to take a hiatus and come back fully inspired, it worked.
This latest album, I See You, takes much from In Colour, and makes a notable evolution of The xx's sound into something a bit more complex in its composition. You'll still find your typical xx tracks here, populated by sparse piano keys and lingering vocal, but they are joined by far more detailed soundscapes, drum and bass backing, and even the odd hiphop riff. It's a bold evolution for the band, but it pays off. I See You might just be their best work yet.
Lead single On Hold is the best example of where The xx are at right now. It retains the simplicity that made The xx so affecting, while adding new musical complexities, backing vocals and an altogether more pop-influenced sound. Meanwhile longtime fans can check out Performance for classic xx minimalism, while other highlights include the crowd-pleasing I Dare You and the powerful tour-de-force of A Violent Noise.
This is an album worth listening to, with great tracks, great variety, and consistency throughout. Top notch work and another reminder of why this band is so highly regarded.
"Pure Comedy - Father John Misty" Album Review
Genre Art-Rock
Josh Tillman, aka Father John Misty, has been riding the wave of fashion following his breakthrough success, 2015's I Love You, Honeybear. The years since have seen the former Fleet Foxes band member become one of music's trendiest icons, and a household name.
Tillman's newest album Pure Comedy sticks close to the formula; world-weary songs of angst and disdain masquerading under the sunny folk stylings made popular by artists like Fleet Foxes and Mumford and Sons.
The songwriting here is the strongest of Tillman's career, with more memorable melodies, stronger hooks and generally a great amount of sonic variety. Tillman plays with samples and multi-instrumental compositions, with songs that journey from quasi-acoustic rambles into full-on orchestral epics. Indeed there's plenty here to savour musically, from title track Pure Comedy to Total Entertainment Forever, but the clear highlight is the wistful 10 minute odyssey So I'm Growing Old on Magic Mountain, a possible early contender for song of the year.
But that's not to say he's softened his edge at all. Tillman brings the same lyrical venom and contemporary philosophising that he is known for, frequently playing with his musical reference points, splicing clips from old adverts and TV shows. The lyrics are awash with pop culture and literary references that draw parallels with the great depression and wars of the 20th Century. These are songs that mourn the perceived chaos of modern consumerism and political trends.
If Honeybear was Tillman's breakthrough, the brilliant Pure Comedy should propel him to the next level. This is very much an album for the world today.
Tuesday, 30 May 2017
Developed by Bioware
Published by Electronic Arts
Genre Action RPG
Platform Xbox One, PS4, PC
Background
Even before I begin, I know this is going to be a very difficult game to review. Partly that's because I am such a big fan of the original trilogy of games (Mass Effects 1 through 3) and its other associated media. So with the announcement that Mass Effect: Andromeda would see the series move to an entirely new setting, in a new galaxy and set hundreds of years later, I was immediately skeptical.
Mass Effect as a series has always been built on the core gameplay pillars of third person shooting, and character roleplaying. And sure, if Andromeda can successfully replicate these elements, the game will certainly still feel like Mass Effect. But the main draw to many fans has always been the incredibly deep world-building, the sharp writing, and the attention to detail that goes towards making a logically consistent setting that despite its fantastical nature is believable, and all the more immersive for it. It would require a very good reason to throw all of that away and start afresh, not to mention keep it consistent with the backstory of the original.
We will discuss all of this and more during the review, and don't worry, while there may be spoilers in this review I will very clearly point them out before we come to them.
Story/Setting
So the first big question mark for me, why Andromeda and why 600 years later?
From a gameplay perspective this makes sense. They wanted to create a "frontier" setting, with an exciting new world full of discovery, in contrast to the more developed and settled Milky Way.
It's a sound concept, the problem is it makes very little sense from a story perspective. Without digging too much into the weeds, the original trilogy establishes the Milky Way galaxy as a largely unexplored place, with finite resources and largely conventional FTL technology. There was little reason to make the impractical journey to a new galaxy. So to begin this game with dialogue describing the Milky Way in such contradictory terms did little to convince me that the writers of Andromeda were suitably familiar with the world over which they are taking creative control. These may seem like small things to quibble about, but unfortunately inconsistency in the writing and backstory was to become a recurring theme during my playthrough of Andromeda.
The bigger problem from a game design perspective is that it takes the risk of abandoning the settings and characters that fans have grown to love, and for what appears to have been very little gain. It doesn't help that the writers have gone to great lengths to change very little. Everyone still lives on a giant spacestation, much like the one in the Milky Way, Krogans live on a desert world much like their one in the Milky Way, outlaws have their own base of operations, much like the Milky Way... you get the picture. On the surface it's hard to see exactly what the point was in this change, if they're just going to give us basically the exact same setting but with names changed.
Unfortunately the real reason for this change is obvious. The Ending to Mass Effect 3 was universally reviled, so nonsensical, so impossible to write their way out of... It's pretty clear that the writers have switched galaxy just to avoid having to deal with the original trilogy's car-crash of an ending. It's lazy, craven, just plain shoddy, but it is what it is, and that means the game starts off on an unfortunately sour note.
Fortunately, once you get past the poorly conceived premise, it's really not such a bad set up for a game. That "frontier" aesthetic and "exploring strange new worlds" is a great concept for a sci-fi story, even if its justification into the larger Mass Effect world is somewhat half-assed. In fact Bioware have come up with a number of very clever ideas for how to make the most of this new setting, starting with the player's ship, Tempest, and its crew.
A player's ship and its crew have always been central to the Mass Effect experience. Andromeda takes this one step further. Players control the Tempest, a much smaller ship than we're used to, with a much smaller crew. The benefit of this is that every single crewmember is a fully fleshed out person, with their own detailed background, conversation tree and story arc. This turns out to be a brilliant move, making life aboard the Tempest far more immersive than ever before, and character interaction far more rewarding.
A good idea, ruined by Mass Effect Andromeda's fundamental flaw: the writing is just not very good, sadly confirming any initial misgivings I had. The Mass Effect series has always prided itself on sharp, high quality writing. Andromeda sees the reins handed over to a new team of writers, headed up (bafflingly) by the people responsible for Mass Effect 3's much maligned ending. Unfortunately this new team is nowhere near as talented as the old one.
It's not a complete disaster, but it's decidedly mixed. Certain scenes are so horrendously written that it is hard to believe a professional got paid to write them, whereas others are passable. One character in particular, Liam is so badly written that it's honestly hard to understand what's going on. Literally, I'll watch a cutscene and then think "what the hell just happened?". One scene features Liam and another crew member stripping naked and swearing at each other... for reasons that aren't really explained. Others involve Liam pulling characters and stories that have never been referenced before out of nowhere and taking actions that make absolutely zero sense. It's almost like the writers decided they wanted to have a particular scene, and then awkwardly forced the dialogue around it. It shows.
Thankfully, the writing generally gets better as the game progresses. Early on, the writers seem a bit desperate to win over the old fans, with characters that immediately fall into lazy cliche and try too hard to replicate the success of the older games. It feels very much like fanfiction in this regard, like these writers tried to imitate what they thought people liked about old Mass Effect, without really understanding what it is that made it special. Fortunately, once the awkward introductions are out of the way and the characters have a bit more freedom to breathe, things improve, and Andromeda finally begins to find its own voice. Things got off to a rocky start, but by the time I reached the end of the story I found myself surprisingly attached to these characters, and sufficiently won over that I found myself looking forward to their future adventures together.
Gameplay
First off, the actual third person action gameplay is excellent. It's a considerable improvement on previous games in the series, with the addition of the jump-pack a delightful twist. Shooting has never felt better, and the customisation of guns and armor is simply deeper than it ever has been. The only shame here is the cover system, which is particularly finicky at the moment.
But far more consequential to the Mass Effect series is the addition of open world exploration. Andromeda is essentially divided into a series of hub-world, each of them absolutely huge and chock full of various quests, characters, and settlements.
This is a wonderful direction for the series, particularly with the new conceptual emphasis on frontier exploration. Mass Effect hasn't felt this open since the first game, but while those open worlds were largely empty, soulless affairs, these ones are much more fully realised, with a more handcrafted feel and a heck of a lot more content. Best of all, the worlds change and react to an extent based on your actions and the quests you complete, which adds a certain sense of accomplishment. It's a great feeling walking around the first stable colony you manage to establish, seeing all the settlers getting on with their lives in peace, and knowing that your actions created this from a desolate wasteland. It's a considerably more dynamic setting than any we've seen in previous Mass Effects.
Unfortunately the novelty wears off, and once you get a bit further into the game it becomes clear how much of this is simply smoke and mirrors. The first colony you establish is very elaborately done. You get to choose what type of colony it will be, you meet the mayor, a fully fleshed out character in his own right, and the moment is honoured through a lengthy cutscene and follow up quests. The obvious effect is for players to finish this first quest and think that the same amount of detail and complexity will be put into every colony you found. That would be wrong, this only happens on the first colony. For all others you push a button and then abruptly you're in an already completely formed colony, most of which have few if any detailed NPCs or quests, none of which have any actual impact on the story or the world at large.
Another example is the very first mission of the game. The level is linear in design, however if you stray from the main path you come across a number of completely optional discoveries and side-quests. Much to my delight, all these little adventures were recorded and acknowledged in the game, through conversation after the mission, as well as in the game's codex system. All these little decisions and choices felt consequential, and the fact that I had witnessed these moments added to the story. This all had me very excited that Andromeda's world was going to be this hugely dynamic place, full of optional mysteries to discover, reacting in real time to your playstyle and decisions. Sadly this too turned out to be smoke and mirrors. This only happened with the first mission, and never again.
In fact the entire opening chapter of the game feels significantly more detailed and nuanced than anything that comes after it. It feels almost like a half finished game, like they implemented all these complexities and features, and then ran out of time or budget. It's a feeling you will come to know well, as this pretty much sums up most of the gameplay in Andromeda.
You see it again with the new crafting system, which again is very complex, and yet ultimately quite pointless. At no point during the game was the ability to custom design a weapon or piece of equipment anything more than a novelty. Then there's the multiplayer, which somehow feels like a stripped down version of the multiplayer in Mass Effect 3.
All these things will no doubt be expanded upon, but throughout it all one can't shake the feeling that this game was simply half finished at release. Which segues perfectly into the the next topic.
Bugs/Lack of Polish
Sloppy writing that clearly hasn't been reviewed carefully, half finished game modes. What comes next? Bugs. And when I say bugs, I don't mean a stuttery framerate, a graphical glitch, or even a nice simple crash. No I mean real bugs.
Mass Effect Andromeda is without any doubt the most bug-ridden AAA game I have ever played. It's hard to overstate this, but it is a catastrophic buggy mess that would make a Bethesda game look polished. I mean this game has it all.
The inventory menu is so appallingly designed, it's barely functional when it works, and it doesn't work very often. You have "new item" notifications that don't go away, quests that get stuck in the log after completion, frequent freezes, and perhaps most embarrassingly, non-existent menus. Apparently there was supposed to be a menu for items related to the player's land vehicle, the Nomad, which was cut before launch. But that won't stop the game constantly trying to take you to that non-existent menu, and won't stop the annoying notifications from alerting you to new items that can never be cleared because the menu DOESN'T EXIST.
But that's just a drop in the bucket, I've seen quest objectives fail to trigger, cutscenes getting stuck, cutscene animation outpacing the dialogue, cutting itself off mid-speech, characters talking over themselves somehow. I've seen AI bug out and run into the corner, enemies die and float in midair, characters duplicating in cutscenes, invisible guns, people in two places at once... and I could go on.
The bugs are frequent and they range from mildly amusing to gamebreaking, at the very least requiring a reload. It's astonishingly bad, especially for a console game which runs on homogenous hardware. Some of these bugs are so frequent and so obvious that they can't possibly have done any serious bug-testing on this before launch.
My personal favourite bug was how when the player character listens to recordings of himself, the character on screen inexplicably speaks the lines.
On a whim I decided to jot down a list of funny bugs that I encountered over the course of a few hours, which you can see here. This is just a few hours! Astonishing.
But it's not just the incredible bugs, it's a general lack of polish across all areas of the game. Animations are generally terrible, often even worse than the animations in older Mass Effect games, which lest we forget were running on generation old hardware.
Seriously just look at this scene, the perfect storm of awful writing and animation. You might look at this and think, well this just looks like a typical silly videogame, but that's the point. Mass Effect was always well above this standard, and yet everything here is just so amateur looking.
What's truly bizarre is that some scenes are actually very well animated, and well written. It's the jarring difference in quality from one moment to the next that is hard to understand. Again, it keeps coming back to the fact that this game clearly was not finished at release.
Conclusion
So Mass Effect Andromeda is a buggy, unfinished product. And yet, for several weeks I simply could not stop playing it. For all its flaws, once the game's story starts to hit is rhythm, all that classic Mass Effect magic kicks in, and you'll be excited to explore that new planet, or plan a movie night with your crewmates.
Ultimately what this game shows us is that the Mass Effect universe is still as utterly compelling as always. While it would be hard for me to recommend a game this shoddy to newcomers, there's still more than enough here to keep old fans happy, and enough promise to suggest that the next adventure will be worth sticking around for.



