Saturday, 14 March 2026
Welcome back to The Ephemeric. It is Oscar season again, and you know what that means: more last minute predictions scribbled down during my 2 hours per day of non-working time in March. This year is a tricky one, I have to say. Two obvious contenders for the big prizes: One Battle After Another, an obvious sort of Oscar favourite by a filmmaker the Academy loves, and Sinners, a bit of a surprise package genre-piece that has shocked just about everyone by becoming the single most Oscar-nominated film of all time. Does that make it the best film? Maybe, but the Academy isnt always so logical. As usual, I will predict the likely winner for each prize, and then bore everyone with why I think the Academy was wrong. Ready? Alright, let's get to it.
Best Picture
Nominations:
- Bugonia – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone, and Lars Knudsen, producers
- F1 – Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski, and Jerry Bruckheimer, producers
- Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale, and Scott Stuber, producers
- Hamnet – Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg, and Sam Mendes, producers
- Marty Supreme – Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas, and Timothée Chalamet, producers
- One Battle After Another – Adam Somner (p.n.), Sara Murphy, and Paul Thomas Anderson, producers
- The Secret Agent – Emilie Lesclaux, producer
- Sentimental Value – Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, producers
- Sinners – Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, and Ryan Coogler, producers
- Train Dreams – Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer, and Michael Heimler, producers
Who should really win: Sinners
Explanation: Yeah, this is one where I think I am going to be at odds with the Academy. One Battle After Another has long been the odds-on favourite to win this prize, seemingly cemented by the recent victories at both the Producers' and Directors' Guild Awards. I get it. It's a good film, topical, and made by a director who's basically an Academy institution. Was it the best film of 2025 though? Not for me.
Best Director
Nominations:
Who should really win: Ryan Coogler - Sinners
Best Director
Nominations:
- Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
- Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
- Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
- Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
- Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Who should really win: Ryan Coogler - Sinners
Explanation: Once again, the stars seem to be aligning for Paul Thomas Anderson. I would go the other way on this one. One Battle After Another is a well made film, but in my opinion it doesn't have the intangible Hollywood alchemy that Sinners has, where it manages to somehow be greater than just the sum of its parts. That magic is what makes filmmaking such an incredible artform, and Sinners has it.
Best Actor
Nominations:
- Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme as Marty Mauser
- Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another as Bob Ferguson
- Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon as Lorenz Hart
- Michael B. Jordan – Sinners as Elijah "Smoke" Moore / Elias "Stack" Moore
- Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent as Armando Solimões / Marcelo Alves / Fernando Solimões
Who should really win: Michael B. Jordan – Sinners as Elijah "Smoke" Moore / Elias "Stack" Moore
Explanation: I think this one is likely to go to Jordan for a few reasons. First, and most importantly, he's a wonderful actor who delivers not one, but two brilliant performances. Secondly, this seems to be the way the winds are blowing with the pre-Oscar awards. I think DiCaprio and Chalamet are in with a shout, the Academy loves them after all, but for me this year belongs to Jordan.
Best Actress
Nominations:
Who should really win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet as Agnes Shakespeare
Best Actress
Nominations:
- Jessie Buckley – Hamnet as Agnes Shakespeare
- Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I'd Kick You as Linda
- Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue as Claire Sardina
- Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value as Nora Borg
- Emma Stone – Bugonia as Michelle Fuller
Who should really win: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet as Agnes Shakespeare
Explanation: I'll go along with this one. Hamnet has really caught something in Hollywood, and with the film unlikely to claim many of the other major awards, I suspect this is where it's going to have its moment.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominations:
Who should really win: Sean Penn – One Battle After Another as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw
Best Supporting Actor
Nominations:
- Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another as Sensei Sergio St. Carlos
- Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein as The Creature
- Delroy Lindo – Sinners as Delta Slim
- Sean Penn – One Battle After Another as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw
- Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value as Gustav Borg
Who should really win: Sean Penn – One Battle After Another as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw
Explanation: Three in a row, honestly i'm not used to agreeing with the Academy so much. Penn was the highlight of this film for me, and would be my pick (although I am kind of stunned that Miles Caton didn't get a nomination here).
Best Supporting Actress
Nominations:
- Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value as Rachel Kemp
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value as Agnes Borg Pettersen
- Amy Madigan – Weapons as Gladys
- Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners as Annie
- Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another as Perfidia Beverly Hills
Who should really win: Amy Madigan – Weapons as Gladys
Explanation: This is another one I expect to go to One Battle After Another. Teyana Taylor gave a strong performance and just seems to tick so many boxes for the Academy. Personally though, I like a creepy, over the top horror villain. Madigan all the way.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominations:
Who should really win: Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Best Original Screenplay
Nominations:
- Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow
- It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi; in collaboration with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian
- Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
- Sentimental Value – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
- Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Who should really win: Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Explanation: This one feels pretty clear to me. Sinners is one of those movies that has something interesting to say and says it well. If that isn't enough, it conveys it in such a unique, quasi-musical fashion. It's hard for me to see this going anywhere else.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominations:
Who should really win: Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; based on the novella by Denis Johnson
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominations:
- Bugonia – Will Tracy; based on the film Save the Green Planet! by Jang Joon-hwan
- Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro; based on the novel by Mary Shelley
- Hamnet – Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell; based on the novel by Maggie O'Farrell
- One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson; based on the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon
- Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; based on the novella by Denis Johnson
Who should really win: Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; based on the novella by Denis Johnson
Explanation: This is one of those awards that I can see getting swept up in a big night of wins for a film like One Battle After Another. Personally, though, I am going for Train Dreams. One of the more underrated films of 2025, with a story that sticks with you more than most. It would be a worthy winner.
So there you have it, The Ephemeric's picks for the year. Enjoy the Oscars tonight, and when the results go as predicted, remember that you heard it here first!
So there you have it, The Ephemeric's picks for the year. Enjoy the Oscars tonight, and when the results go as predicted, remember that you heard it here first!
