The Ephemeric

We are now less than two weeks away from the 2022 US Congressional Midterm elections. These elections will determine the balance of power in Washington DC for the next two years and could well set the tone for the upcoming Presidential elections, including the widely expected return of you-know-who. If there is one thing we have learned from the past few years, it is that elections can have serious repercussions. All around the world, eyes will be on the United States.


Introduction
The Democratic Party heads into this midterm election with full control of Government. They hold the White House as well as majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The White House, of course, is not up for grabs this year, but every seat in the House faces an election, as do 1/3 of Senate seats. Much to play for, as it were.

Today I will be taking an in depth look at the House and Senate separately. But before we get into that let's quickly go through the golden rules of midterm elections, which apply to both the House and Senate elections and are vital towards understanding the dynamics at play this year.

1. Midterm elections generally show lower voter turnout than Presidential elections. I have written in past election cycles about why this might be the case, but it essentially boils down to people just caring less. Rightly or wrongly people just see the President as a more important and more glamorous role. Everyone knows who he is, he's a celebrity. By comparison, very few Americans can even name their Congressional representative.

2. Low voter turnout generally favours the Republicans. This one might seem less obvious, but statistically it is undeniably true. We could spend an entire article discussing the reasons why this might be the case, but most experts will agree that it comes down to something quite obvious. In a low turnout year where people are less motivated to vote, the most likely people to still show up and vote are a) those who care the most (ie those who are most switched on to the latest political happenings, spend more time watching cable news, etc) and b) those with the easiest opportunity to vote (ie those with more free time on a Tuesday). So who watches a lot of cable news and is less likely to have no work or other commitments on a Tuesday? The elderly, and low-education voters, two voting blocs who have very heavily backed Republicans in recent years.

3. Midterm election turnout almost always favours the party in opposition. This is another fact that is very clear in the data, the party which holds the White House almost always comes off worse in the midterms. It makes perfect sense really. Fear and anger are great motivators to vote, and the party out of power is invariably the angrier.

This last point, in particular, is really key. The track record of the President's party losing midterm elections is extremely strong and goes back decades. It's such a strong record that it holds true regardless of who the President is or how popular they are. Even Barack Obama, a popular and successful two-term President who left office with the highest approval ratings of any outgoing President, lost both of his midterm elections by wide margins. 

Based on these factors, our starting presumption should be that the Republicans are a strong favourite to win. They typically benefit from the lower turnout and enthusiasm of midterm elections and this year have the added benefit of being in the opposition. But despite this, the available data heading into these final weeks does not appear to indicate the red-wave blowout we might expect.

In fact, despite the Republican party's apparent advantages this election cycle, Democrats appear to be leading in most national polls. The polls released this week (at the time of writing) have Democrats leading by +1 (Tufts), +3 (Echelon) and +4 (YouGov), with only the usual partisan pollsters showing a Republican lead. An average of the most recent ten polls (excluding partisan pollsters from both sides) has Democrats ahead by 1% and most non-partisan polls in recent weeks have had them 1-2% ahead on average.

The situation appears particularly worrying for Republicans if you look at other elections that have taken place so far this year, typically a good predictor of midterm success. Fivethirtyeight's analysis suggests that in special elections held since the summer, Democrats have outperformed their partisan baseline by 11% on average, an astonishing result that would be more in keeping with a blue wave than a Republican leaning or even a close election.

We find ourselves in a very unusual position for a midterm election, one where the fundamental electoral presumptions are ostensibly at odds with the actual data and polling. This gulf is actually perfectly illustrated in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, where a polls-only analysis has Democrats as solid favourites to hold the Senate, whereas the expert opinion has it as a toss-up.

Now before we get into our final predictions, let's have a quick look back at how this blog did last time around. The Ephemeric's 2020 election predictions correctly called the winner in all three of the Presidential race, the House race and the Senate race. The Senate predictions were within 1 seat of the actual results and the Presidential predictions called every single state correctly except for Iowa and the lone electoral vote from Maine's 2nd Congressional district. The Ephemeric was one of the few places to correctly predict Democrats to win in Georgia and Republicans to win in Florida. I say all this not to brag but just to point out, before we get into this year's forecast, that this blog has a formidable track record in predicting US elections.

So what to make of the unusual 2022 situation? I think the Republican advantage still holds, but it won't be as golden a year as it should have been. I will dive deeper into my reasoning behind this, but first of all the headline prediction you all came here for: The Ephemeric predicts the Republican Party to retake the House of Representatives and the Democratic Party to hold the Senate.

House of Representatives Verdict: Republican Majority

Current House Map: Democrats - 220, Republicans - 212.
Predicted House Map: Democrats - 202, Republicans - 233.
Approximate Net Change: Republicans gain 15 - 20 seats.

The above map is based on data from a variety of aggregators, including Pollster, Fivethirtyeight, and analysts including Sabato and Cook Political, and shows the expected House map. The rest is pretty self explanatory: dark blue represents safe Democrat wins, light blue leans Democrat, grey is toss up. Meanwhile on the other side, light red to dark red represents lean to likely Republicans.

So first thing is first. The uninitiated may well look at all the red on that map and assume that Republicans are steam-rolling these elections. A reasonable thing to think, but look closer and you will see that most of that red belongs to just a few very large seats, covering vast tracts of rural land where very few people actually live. If you zoom in to the denser population centres you will see dozens of much tinier, but far more populated blue districts.

On paper, 2022 should be a blow-out year for Republicans to retake the House. Currently Democrats hold only a small majority, 220 seats with 218 needed. As we have already discussed, the opposition usually performs well in midterm elections and the Republican Party in particular has (in recent history) benefitted from the lower turnout and enthusiasm of the midterm election cycle. The average gain for an opposition party in a midterm is around 25 seats, and recent cycles have tended to be even higher, 40+. They only need to pick up 6.

In an ordinary midterm election cycle, these factors should make the requisite gain a mere formality. But what about those polls and special election results? In order to talk about those in greater detail we need to discuss the one additional key factor in House elections: gerrymandering.

As a reminder for those new to American politics: gerrymandering is the process through which partisan actors draw up the borders of Congressional districts in such a way that voters more likely to vote for your opponent are pooled into as few districts as possible, while your voters are spread into as many districts as possible whilst still maintaining a lead in those districts. This process effectively allows you to increase the number of seats you win, even if you don't increase the number of votes you get. It results in some bizarre and shockingly manipulative district boundaries. For lack of a better description, it's a legal way of rigging a democratic election. For further clarity on how this trick can be used to manipulate election results, please see the diagram below.


Gerrymandering has been a huge factor in recent election cycles. The Republican control of the 2010 redistricting process allowed for Congressional maps to be gerrymandered to an absurd extent for these past 10 years, bad enough that it was estimated Democrats would need to win by around 5% nationally (a near landslide margin) just to break even in the House. This was even put to the test in 2020, where Democrats did win by about 5% nationally, and only just squeaked a majority in the House.

However, Democrats' recent electoral successes have allowed for a much more equitable redistricting process in 2020. Republicans maintain their gerrymandered advantage, but it's much smaller than it was before, with current estimates suggesting Democrats now only need to win by about 2% nationally to break even. 

Now look back at those polls, what do you see? Democrats leading by 1-2%, almost exactly the hypothetical break-even margin. If we take the polls at face value, this race is essentially a toss-up. Sure, you could argue that historical precedent would tip the scales in Republicans' favour, but equally you could point to the recent special election results as tangible proof that this advantage may not in fact be materialising. 

To put it another way, even though the Republicans on paper only need to pick up 6 seats, the recent redistricting has actually moved the baseline further away from them. It's almost as if the Democrats have an extra ten or so seats. So while it may look as though Republicans only need to slightly outperform their 2020 results in order to take a majority, the less favourable gerrymander this year means they really need to pick up more ground. To be clear, the additional margin is not huge (well within the historical average for an opposition party gain) and they would still be solid favourites to do so. But if the less than stellar polling data proves to be accurate, it might be a bit closer than people are expecting. I should note that there has been some evidence of polls trending towards the Republicans in recent weeks, which may indicate they will outperform the current polling, but this seems to have levelled out in recent days. 

As for the polls themselves. "How can we trust them?" I hear some people ask. "They're always wrong." Polling has gotten a bit of a bad rep in recent elections, unfairly so. The 2016 and 2020 polls were nowhere near as far off as conventional wisdom would have you believe. Clinton led by 4% in the polls and won by 2%. Biden led by 8% in the polls and won by 5%. Most significantly, the polling in the most recent midterm cycle, 2018, were almost exactly spot on, and in fact overestimated the Republican Party's support. To be clear, there have been certain states with consistently big polling misses in recent years (FL, OH and WI in the Republicans' favour, NV and arguably GA in the Democrats' favour), but in general and nationally the polls have tended to be reasonably accurate without any particular bias.

So despite the hype, I don't buy that there's enough evidence to support a theory that the polls will inherently underestimate Republicans. That simply isn't true historically and certainly was not true in the most comparable recent election cycle, 2018. You could well have a polling error in either direction of a few percentage points, and given the fine margins that could well be significant in determining the balance of power. But anyone who tells you they know which way such an error will go or that Republicans can be presumed to be outperforming the polls is talking pure nonsense.

I have ultimately gone for a Republican majority. The polling and special election results may not be indicative of the red-wave that history suggests they should achieve, but the margin they need to gain is still small enough that a modest polling improvement from 2020 should be enough. I think Republicans will be able to win the majority, but it will be a smaller gain than would have been expected in such an advantageous electoral climate, 20 or so seats compared to recent cycles' 40+ gains.

Senate Verdict: Democratic Majority

Current Senate Map: Democrats - 50, Republicans - 50.
Predicted Senate Map: Democrats- 50, Republicans - 50.
Approximate Net Change: Democrats gain 0-1 seats.
Key states to watch: PA, GA, NV, WI, NC, OH, AZ

If the House is looking like a relatively safe bet for the Republicans, the Senate right now is showing a small but clear lean in the other direction towards the Democrats. This really shouldn't be the case. The 2022 map may not be as absurdly one-sided as 2018 (a year where Republicans managed to hold the Senate despite a blue wave), but it is still pretty favourable for them with most of the competitive races in conventionally red states like Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina as well as 2016 Trump states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But while there are enough close races here that a Republican majority is still very possible, Democrats head into the final stretch as favourites.

The Senate right now is split evenly, 50/50, with the Democratic Party controlling a majority by way of Vice President Harris' tie-breaking vote. 

The Republican Party has three clear pick up opportunities: AZ, GA and NV. 

AZ and GA are conventionally red states, while NV is one of those states that is always viewed as a toss up, even though it has reliably voted Democrat in recent years. Interestingly, of these three it is Nevada that is currently polling the closest, but to be quite frank I am skeptical. There haven't been many high quality polls there and polls in recent electoral cycles have pretty consistently overestimated Republicans. The polls are close enough that I will call this a toss up for now, but I would still expect a Democratic hold here and so far the early voting data would seem to support this. Everyone is looking at NV as the most likely pick up for Republicans, I think it is overrated.

Meanwhile, Democrats have actually led pretty consistently in the conventionally red states of AZ and GA. There are two main reasons for that. 1) These states are far more purple now than conventional wisdom has accepted. 2) The Republican candidates are exceptionally weak. But while I think Republican chances in NV are overrated, they may actually be underrated here. In a year where the national electoral environment favours Republicans, they could well outperform polls in conventionally red states such as these. In addition, they lead comfortably in the polling for the Gubernatorial races in both of these states, and at a time where ticket splitting is becoming increasingly rare, I could easily see the two Senate candidates riding their coattails to a win (as happened in a few races in 2018). 

To be clear, Democrats are narrowly favoured in all three of these states. But the margins are narrow enough that the law of probability suggests that there's a good chance Republicans pick up at least one. 

Democrats, meanwhile, have four realistic pick up opportunities: NC, OH, PA and WI. 

One of these, PA appears to be leaning in their favour. As above, the main reason for this is the gulf in quality between candidates, with Republicans inexplicably tapping celebrity quack and noted New Jersey resident Dr. Oz to run against the popular, salt of the earth Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. There have been doubts raised about Fetterman's health in recent weeks, but so far there isn't any credible polling to show it having an impact on the race. At the same time we have an inverse of the situation in GA and AZ, with a Democratic Gubernatorial candidate leading polls. I expect the combination of Fetterman's sustained polling lead and the coattails of the Democrats' popular Gubernatorial candidate to secure a pick up here.

NC, OH and WI are more interesting. Polls had generally been showing these races as competitive, or even leaning in the Democrats' favour over the summer. There has been some movement back to the Republicans in these final days, but the margin is very narrow. The races may appear competitive, but I am skeptical. OH and WI in particular significantly overestimated Democrats in 2016 and 2020 (although not in 2018). I think Democrats are in a similar situation in NC, OH and WI as Republicans are in NV. The polling is solid, but the reality may not be quite so favourable. 

Ultimately, despite the favourable electoral climate, the odds appear to be stacked against Republicans when it comes to the Senate. If Democrats do manage to pick up PA, Republicans will need to win two of NV, AZ and GA. This is absolutely achievable, but with Democrats leading polls in all three it's a tall order. They would also need to hold off Democrats in NC, OH and WI, where the margins are narrow enough that a Democratic pick up is entirely plausible. Republican hopes of taking the Senate most likely rest on holding that PA seat, which they are not currently favoured to do. Democrats retaining a majority with either 50 or 51 seats seems the most likely.

Conclusion
So there it is. By no means a foregone conclusion, but the polling right now strongly suggests an election night that results in a split Congress. In a year where Republicans were widely expected to sweep the legislature, that would have to be seen as a big disappointment. If I had to put numbers to it, I would say the Republican House is 75% likely, and Democratic Senate 60% likely. There is still time for this to change, and the fine margins are such that a wide range of realistic outcomes exist, but if I were a betting man this is how I would place my money. 

Created by Akiva Goldsman
Network Paramount+
Starring Anson Mount, Ethan Peck, Celia Rose Gooding
Genre Sci-Fi
Running Time 46-62 minutes


It would be an understatement to say that CBS/Paramount's attempts to revitalise the Star Trek franchise have been met with mixed reception. The first attempt, Star Trek: Discovery, went to great lengths to distance itself from earlier entries in the series, instead seeking mainstream relevance by becoming a derivation of other recent successful media such as Game of Thrones, managing to alienate new and old fans alike in the process. The second attempt, Star Trek: Picard, drew all the wrong lessons from this, attempting to paper over the tonal and pacing issues with gratuitous nostalgia. Both have their flaws and, occasionally, strengths, but neither were able to consistently overcome poor writing and paper-thin characterisation.

The football season is underway and it promises to be one for the history books. If this summer seemed strangely empty, it's because we are about to see a first ever winter World Cup when Qatar 2022 kicks off in December. A strong factor in fortunes this year will doubtless be how well teams can adapt to this new twist in the schedule: a more rested start to the season, with an absolutely chaotic mid-section. The 2022/23 season is chock-full of delicious subplots and rivalries and I am excited to see how it all plays out. So without further ado, let's dive into it and get the season underway.

Are you surrounded by water? Is the sun shining? Does the year end in an odd number? No... but, let's pretend that it does. It can only mean one thing. It's time for the Biennale!

Republic of Korea












Top of everyone's must see list at the 2022 Biennale is the Korean pavilion, exhibiting the work of Yunchil Kim. It's easy to see why, comprising a dazzling array of creations and machines that harmoniously blend the mechanical and biological. The centrepiece is Gyre (pictured), an undulating, mechanical snake-like contraption covered with articulated panels of iridescent fluid that honestly needs to be seen in motion to be appreciated. Other installations include a chandelier of liquid canisters, pistons and tubules that pumps Venetian water, a cascading tower of lights that reacts to subatomic particles, and a kaleidoscopic series of light-bending panels that uses special lenses to create a beautiful pattern effect around the movement of fluids. Korea's pavilion is a marvel both of engineering and aesthetics, a room of living, breathing sculptures that is everything a Biennale installation should be.

France












Taking a very different approach is Zineb Sedira's French pavilion. An ode to the activist filmmakers of the 1960s and 1970s, the pavilion is transformed into a film set, an editing room and a screening room, with cameras even set up to allow guests to briefly appear on screen. As an immersive setting, this is quite interesting to explore, albeit somewhat undermined by the many thousands of other Biennale guest cluttering all of the show spaces, occupying what interactive elements exist.

Malta












Another one that really needs to be seen to be appreciated, Malta representatives Arcangelo Sassolino, Giuseppe Schembri Bonaci, and Brian Schembri have created an installation that utilises induction technology to create a shower of molten steel droplets falling into cold water, before hissing and fizzling out of existence. This is, believe it or not, intended to be a kinetic reimagining of Caravaggio's The Beheading of Saint John the Baptist. As a visual effect it is quite eye catching and oddly haunting, although I wonder if it would still be so without the ominous music playing over the room's speaker system.

Hungary












This one you either love or hate. In this solo exhibition, Zsófia Keresztes uses tile mosaics to create some truly unique images. Moulded surrealist sculptures with an organic feel to them representing metamorphosis of the body. It's like someone tried to bring the imagery of Dali and Kafka to life in a Gaudi-esque form. Some people react with revulsion, others with fascination. In either case it's certainly worth seeing.

Austria












With Austria's pavilion, Karola Kraus explores body consciousness through the imagery and tastes of our pop cultural history, drawing on the aesthetics of television, fashion and music to create a psychedelic dreamscape that. For something a bit lighter and more ironic, this is worth a look, as well as for its clear visual charm.

Uzbekistan












Uzbekistan's pavilion is likely to fly under the radar somewhat, due in part to its location away from the main event space in the Giardini, but their Garden of Knowledge, created by Charlie Tapp and Abror Zufarov stands out to me as one of the more visually memorable spectacles. Floral sculptures and a fully reflective stainless steel floor create the illusion of walking on water in this most serene exhibition space (no shoes allowed though). There is something sublimely refreshing about this room, so long as you can get over the immediate sense of vertigo one gets from looking down.

Italy












No round up of the different national pavilions can be complete without a mention of the home-team, Italy. By far the largest exhibition space, Gian Maria Tosatti has used the pavilion to reflect on the state of the nation and economic ennui. Divided into two sections, the first allows guests to explore a series of dusty warehouses filled with disused machinery and operational spaces, evoking the economic depression and stagnation that has become endemic. "The rise and fall of the Italian industrial dream". The second then turns to the balance of humanity and nature with "the destiny of comets", a dimly lit space filled with harsh, mechanical sounds astride a seemingly endless corridor of water, with the only visual landmark a series of moving, twinkling lights. Obtuse? Sure, but interesting.

The Central Pavilion












Of course, no visit to Biennale is complete without seeing the central pavilion, an expansive gallery space that features hundreds of different artists spread across multiple buildings. There's something for everyone, from fluorescing flowers to digitised cosplay that expertly blends computer and practical effects to create scenes that become difficult to separate reality from imagination. Precious Okoyomon has turned one gallery space into an expansive butterfly garden. Bogota-based artist Delcy Morelos turns another into maze of soil and farming equipment as a representation of cocoa and cinnamon farms. Most bizarrely, one room consists of a giant strange of what looks like human hair that fills the room. This one made me uncomfortable, not going to lie. The content here doesn't always succeed, but there's enough spectacle and ambition to justify the price of entry and make for an entertaining day out.

Other












But Biennale extends far beyond the boundaries of Giardini and the Arsenale and worthwhile exhibitions can be found all over Venice. My pick this year was British-Indian sculptor Anish Kapoor, known for his ambitious, often surreal installations. This year he has taken up space in his own workshop at Palazzo Manfrin, as well as some gallery space at the Gallerie dell'Accademia. There are some old Kapoor favourites here. His wax catapult (unfortunately inactive here), his room of mirrors, and all manner of mind-bending optical illusions including recessed carvings that look to be floating and sculptures that appear 2D from some angles and 3D from others. Always worth a look.


So there you have a whistle-stop tour of this year's Biennale. This is, of course just a sample of all that there is to see around town this year. But for now, I need to find a place to cool off with a drink and some gelato. See you in two years' time!

So much noteworthy new music, so little time. Looking for a new jam? I hear you buddy. The summer is now upon us, and as such we will be doing the Spring Music Round-Up, a rough and ready summary of some of the most interesting new releases of the recent past.

Specifically we will be looking at the new albums from Arcade Fire, Father John Misty, Beach House, and Kavinsky. Let's dive right in.


"We - Arcade Fire" Album Review
Genre Rock

We represents something of a comeback for Montreal alternative rockers Arcade Fire. That is not to say that their last album, Everything Now was bad, but when your discography to-date consists almost entirely of seminal, genre-defining records, expectations can be high.

If We doesn't quite achieve the heights of albums like Neon Bible or The Suburbs, it is definitely a step in the right direction, musically. My biggest criticism of Everything Now was that it seemed to be an album that put its concept on too great a pedestal, at the expense of the music. We, by contrast, is more melodic, more sincere in its songwriting. This is still Arcade Fire, so of course it is going to be political and full of social commentary. But for the first time in years, Arcade Fire seem to have tapped into that multi-instrumental musical talent that made their early work so iconic. Prime example being Lightning I, II, a song that sounds like it could easily have come from a Funeral-era Arcade Fire album.

Ostensibly written as a reaction to the pandemic and the current state of detachment we feel from society, to the extent that the album is even structured as two separate segments, I and We. It's possible that We may be trying too hard to be loved. The lyrics are clunky and lacking in subtlety, a complaint in common with their previous album. A great example of this is End of the Empire I-III, not a bad song by any means, but one which gets its point across in a rather artless and obvious fashion.

There is plenty to enjoy with We, and certainly you are unlikely to find a more ambitious rock album in 2022. But while the music is memorable, conceptually this album still feels like a bit of an imitation of Arcade Fire's more celebrated work.




"Chloë and the next 20th Century - Father John Misty" Album Review
Genre Jazz-folk

Josh Tillman, aka Father John Misty, has had quite a journey in recent years. From the side project of a Fleet Foxes band member, to hipster darling, to bona fide superstar. 

Tillman shows no sign of slowing his roll here, with Chloë and the next 20th Century, an ambitious genre-mash of an album that sees Tillman blend his usual folk stylings with some vintage-flavoured jazz and big-band. 

With Father John Misty, Tillman has always walked a fine line in songwriting between being brutal and raw, versus arch and satirical. He finds himself in funny form again here with dense and witty lyrics that meld the music's ostensibly mid-century trappings with contemporary subject matter; issues of race, women's rights, classism.

The vibrant Hollywood trappings make for an easy listen throughout, but particular mention needs to be made of the opening track Chloë, a delightful Cole Porter-esque jaunt about unrequited love, or the luscious Funny Girl. But if there is one standout track it has to be Q4, an irony-laced critique of the art-for-profit industry that skips along with its rolling harpsichord track.

It all reminds us of why we love Father John Misty and his music. The comedy, the tragedy, it's all here and with new musical experimentations, inventively composed. Definitely not one to miss.




"Once Twice Melody - Beach House" Album Review
Genre Dream-Pop

Baltimore dream-pop duo Beach House are a band that have achieved a fair amount of notoriety in the indie music scene over the past decade. Known for their easy listening style and lush, intimate soundscapes, Beach House has followed in the well-worn tracks of those that came before, like a Stars, Broken Social Scene or Au Revoir Simone for the 2010s. They've had some hits. They've always been a pleasant, inoffensive group. With new album Once Twice Melody, Beach House are launching themselves into the stratosphere.

Once Twice Melody is their grandest vision yet. Bold, epic and "big" from the very first track. The music retains their dreamy, ambient style but with an added drive that allows the music to sink its teeth into the listener in a way that their earlier work rarely did. It's a work of far greater ambition that we've seen to date and one that establishes them firmly among the upper echelons of musicians working today.

Divided into four parts with 18 tracks total, this is also a longer album that we are used to seeing from bands in recent years. Yet it never feels long, so consistent is the stream of strong, memorable tracks. The duo of title track Once Twice Melody and Superstar is an opening salvo that any band would envy, and it follows quickly with Runaway, Over and Over, and possibly the most impressive track on the album, New Romance. It's a remarkable string of music.

This is an album worth listening to, with great tracks, great variety, and consistency throughout. Top notch work and another reminder of why this band is so highly regarded.




"Reborn - Kavinsky" Album Review
Genre Synthwave

There aren't many artists who can be credited with having invented a genre. But while it would be a stretch to say that Kavinsky truly invented the synthwave genre (he still owes much to his French House forebears, notably Daft Punk) his music has so come to typify the genre that the name of his first album, Outrun, is often used as an umbrella term for music and other media connected with this aesthetic.

For a while, it looked as though Kavinsky would take the iconic status of his debut and ride off into the digitised sunset (Outrun came out almost a decade ago at this point). But in recent years he had been teasing a return and in 2022 that has finally come to fruition with the release of Reborn. 

Fans of Kavinsky will certainly recognise the staples: a slickly produced paean to the music and film of the 1980s, cinematic in scope and content. But while Reborn is clear on its influences, it is by no means stuck in the past; often experimental in form and with a digital quality that is as futuristic as anything in the genre. 

But where Kavinsky's debut felt like a relentless livewire of energy, Reborn often feels somewhat more measured. The sound is fuller and more polished, but also slower and more introspective, sometimes bordering on balladic. At its finest moments, Reborn dazzles, but at other times it can come off as surprisingly bland and mainstream. Certainly there is nothing wrong with an artist trying to evolve his style, but Reborn is still very much at its best when it captures that energy, as with lead single Renegade and title track Reborn.

But the absolute highlight of this album is Zenith. Billed as a spiritual sequel to Kavinsky's most famous hit, Nightcall, this is the one track above all others that manages to successfully marry the new introspective approach with the wild exuberance of Outrun. An instant classic of brooding intensity and white hot saxophone solo. 

Kavinsky returns in strong form and with a level of polish that leaves us excited for what the future holds. While the album as a whole may not leave the indelible mark of its predecessor, it does contain some absolutely fantastic tracks that are not to be missed.

Another doozy of a season in the record books, which means it is time for The Ephemeric's traditional end of season review. We had drama, tension and last minute twists, but who did what and which players caught our eye? Read on to find out.

The 2021/22 season kept us in suspense right up until the final whistle, but in the end it is another title for well-funded Manchester City, a title that may seem something of a consolation prize for a team still eluded by the European glory they so crave. For runners up Liverpool, however, it is a tale of oh-so-near. Having been within a realistic shout of an unprecedented quadruple just days ago, they instead need to settle for the two domestic cups, neither of which, it has to be said, were claimed all that convincingly. The tale of English football's top clubs is rounded out by Chelsea who, while injury crisis prevented them from sustaining a title push, did manage to end the season as Champions of the World and with another Super Cup to boot. 

Now we head into the next season with so many tantalising plotlines to follow. Have Tottenham finally got it right with Antonio Conte? Can Erik ten Hag work his magic and find a way to turn Man United's cast of disparate starlets into a cohesive unit? What does the future hold for Chelsea in a post-Abramovich world? The Premier League remains football's most exciting competition, and we are already looking forward to next season.

Now without further ado it is time to move on to the Ephemeric end of season awards, followed by our carefully selected Premier League team of the year.


The Ephemeric Premier League Awards 2022:

Winners: Manchester City 

Relegated: Burnley, Watford, Norwich 

Player of the Year: Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) - Arguably the best player in football today. Salah topped both the goals and assists table and remains the essential player of one of the world's best sides.

U-21 Player of the Year: Conor Gallagher (Crystal Palace) - A competitive year for this prize. On another day I could easily have awarded this to Reece James or Phil Foden, but in the end it is the Crystal Palace loanee that has most impressed. To make his Premier League debut and immediately exert such influence and poise is a remarkable accomplishment and hopefully the beginning of a very strong career.

Best Goalkeeper: Alisson (Liverpool) - The most clean sheets, and just a constant presence in this Liverpool defence. Alisson just seems to have every attribute a keeper needs.

Top Scorer: Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) & Son Heung-Min (Tottenham) (23) 

Most Assists: Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) (13) 

Manager of the Year: Antonio Conte (Tottenham) - For years Tottenham have seemed like a club adrift, consistent only in their underachievement, even under the stewardship of some top level managers. In Conte it seems the club may finally have found someone with the will to elevate these players and finally achieve some level of consistent results.

Best signing of the season: Luis Diaz (Liverpool) 

Worst signing of the season: Dele Alli (Everton) 


The Ephemeric Premier League Team of the Season 2022:


A surprisingly difficult XI to pick this year. Alisson in goal picks himself, along with the league's two standout players Salah and Son, but for every other position there were at least two or three players who could have made a credible claim to be in this team. 

The inclusion of Reece James over Trent Alexander-Arnold may raise a few eyebrows, but quite frankly it shouldn't. TAA has shown himself time and time again to be shaky at the back (as we saw this past weekend to tragic effect), while James has been arguably Chelsea's most rock-solid defender, to the extent that he has often played at centre-half. James' attacking talents are also underappreciated, the fact that he has a higher combined goals and assists tally than TAA despite being injured half the season says everything. Trent is a fantastic footballer, but Reece James, when fit, was arguably among the league's best players this season.

Harry Kane is another who seems to have flown under the radar, possibly as a result of Son stealing the headlines. While it is true that Kane has had a quiet season by his standards, the statistics don't lie. 17 league goals and 9 assists, a very formidable tally by anyone's standards. Kane remains one of the most dependable attacking talents in world football.

Then there is Kevin de Bruyne, the Premier League's official player of the year. His pick over the likes of Salah and Son may be questionable, but there is no denying that he is a world class talent and the beating heart of a very good Manchester City side. I choose a tantalising central midfield for this XI with the marauding creative talents of De Bruyne and Mount (fun, underappreciated fact: only two players in the Premier League had a greater combined goals/assists than Mount) playing off a Declan Rice fulcrum. 

Completing the defence with the standout players of the league's most miserly defences seems like a no-brainer.

So there we have it, another season of Premier League football gone by. We'll see you again next season!

Directed by Rupert Goold
Written by Mike Bartlett
Starring Bertie Carvel, Tamara Tunie, Lydia Wilson
Theatre Old Vic


Even though his time in office has come to an end, it's clear that it will take some time for the world to shake the spectre of the 45th President from its collective consciousness. This fixation comes not just from a place of revulsion, but fascination. There are many out there who still yearn to understand, not just the man, but his following. How could such a person command a fervent and loyal base of support from so many? How could his reprehensible ideas and obvious nonsense find any measure of resonance, not just among the uninformed, but in some cases the intelligent and powerful? For all his controversies and corruption, Donald Trump remains a mystery that compels interest in even those who stand against him. The 47th indulges that fascination and in doing so crafts some superb entertainment, without ever really providing any deep new insights.

The 47th is an immaculately presented piece of theatre marked by a spellbinding central performance. But much like its subject matter, it is gaudy and designed to elicit a visceral reaction, rather than a true exploration.