Saturday 9 March 2024
Welcome back to The Ephemeric. It is Oscar season again, and once again March is the month in which I know not the light of day. I could make the same joke as last year by copy pasting the intro blurb, but instead I'll just get straight to some predictions so we can all go on with our day.
Some years are difficult to predict when it comes to the Oscars. This is not one of those years. There's always the chance of a few curveballs, but for the most part there are some pretty clear favourites for each of the major prizes. As usual, I will predict the likely winner for each prize, and then condescendingly lecture you as to why the Academy is wrong about it. Ready? Alright, let's get to it.
Best Picture
Nominations:
- American Fiction – Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson, and Jermaine Johnson, producers
- Anatomy of a Fall – Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, producers
- Barbie – David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, and Robbie Brenner, producers
- The Holdovers – Mark Johnson, producer
- Killers of the Flower Moon – Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese, and Daniel Lupi, producers
- Maestro – Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning, and Kristie Macosko Krieger, producers
- Oppenheimer – Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, and Christopher Nolan, producers
- Past Lives – David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon, and Pamela Koffler, producers
- Poor Things – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, and Emma Stone, producers
- The Zone of Interest – James Wilson, producer
Who should really win: The Holdovers
Explanation: This seems to be a bit of a foregone conclusion. Oppenheimer has swept most of the major awards and is the runaway favourite to win. It's a fine film, but I have to say it left me a little cold. The choppy, rushed pacing that jarringly jumped between scenes, years and stories with little context, feeling more like a 6 part miniseries that was cut down to fit a Hollywood film length. Of all the films this year, the one that has stuck with me the most, and the one that I expect will endure the best, is The Holdovers and its timeless, bittersweet and, above all, human story.
Best Director
Nominations:
Who should really win: None of the above
Best Director
Nominations:
- Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
- Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
- Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
- Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
Who should really win: None of the above
Explanation: I have to say none of the films above really grabbed me for their directorial brilliance. Many have pacing issues. When I think of the films with the most essential direction in 2023, I think of Alexander Payne's work on The Holdovers, Bradley Cooper's work on Maestro and, yes, Greta Gerwig's work on Barbie.
Best Actor
Nominations:
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro as Leonard Bernstein
- Colman Domingo – Rustin as Bayard Rustin
- Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers as Paul Hunham
- Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer as J. Robert Oppenheimer
- Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction as Thelonious "Monk" Ellison
Who should really win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer as J. Robert Oppenheimer
Explanation: Cillian will definitely win. This one I will go along with. He is a phenomenal actor and did a superb job in creating a depiction of Oppenheimer to which audiences could connect. Without Murphy, there is no Oppenheimer.
Best Actress
Nominations:
Who should really win: Carey Mulligan – Maestro as Felicia Montealegre
Best Actress
Nominations:
- Annette Bening – Nyad as Diana Nyad
- Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon as Mollie Burkhart
- Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall as Sandra Voyter
- Carey Mulligan – Maestro as Felicia Montealegre
- Emma Stone – Poor Things as Bella Baxter
Who should really win: Carey Mulligan – Maestro as Felicia Montealegre
Explanation: Easy to predict. Gladstone has won most of the major awards, and you know the Academy loves to pretend that it can somehow assuage its white guilt by giving awards to actors who shine a light on the crimes of the past rather than, you know, actually doing anything to make a difference. Picking a worthy winner is more challenging. Gladstone is absolutely brilliant and definitely a strong contender, but so too is Emma Stone and Carey Mulligan. I think if I had to choose, I would go with Mulligan, the performance which, more than any other, connected with me and made me feel something.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominations:
Who should really win: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer as Lewis Strauss
Best Supporting Actor
Nominations:
- Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction as Clifford "Cliff" Ellison
- Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon as William King Hale
- Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer as Lewis Strauss
- Ryan Gosling – Barbie as Ken
- Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things as Duncan Wedderburn
Who should really win: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer as Lewis Strauss
Explanation: It took every fiber of my being not to pick Ryan Gosling, whose performance in Barbie was brilliant, hilarious, and easily the highlight of a strong film.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominations:
- Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer as Kitty Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple as Sofia
- America Ferrera – Barbie as Gloria
- Jodie Foster – Nyad as Bonnie Stoll
- Da'Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers as Mary Lamb
Who should really win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers as Mary Lamb
Explanation: Another one that seems obvious, and I agree with the Academy here. An excellent performance of an excellent role in an excellent film.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominations:
Who should really win: The Holdovers – David Hemingson
Best Original Screenplay
Nominations:
- Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
- The Holdovers – David Hemingson
- Maestro – Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
- May December – Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
- Past Lives – Celine Song
Who should really win: The Holdovers – David Hemingson
Explanation: I think this one is going to Anatomy of a Fall, which has already picked up this prize at the Golden Globes and BAFTA, but personally I couldn't pick any film for this award over The Holdovers. Smart, funny, pitch perfect in its writing and pacing.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominations:
Who should really win: American Fiction – Cord Jefferson; based on the novel Erasure by Percival Everett
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominations:
- American Fiction – Cord Jefferson; based on the novel Erasure by Percival Everett
- Barbie – Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach; based on characters created by Ruth Handler
- Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan; based on the biography American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin
- Poor Things – Tony McNamara; based on the novel by Alasdair Gray
- The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer; based on the novel by Martin Amis
Who should really win: American Fiction – Cord Jefferson; based on the novel Erasure by Percival Everett
Explanation: This is a tricky one. American Fiction has been picking up a lot of writing awards, and as an adaptation of a very well regarded novel it enters this contest in a strong position. But this is one of those awards that I can see Oppenheimer picking up if it has as good a night as people seem to be expecting.
So there you have it, The Ephemeric's picks for the year. Enjoy the Oscars tonight, and when the results go as predicted, remember that you heard it here first!
So there you have it, The Ephemeric's picks for the year. Enjoy the Oscars tonight, and when the results go as predicted, remember that you heard it here first!
