james debate
james debate

Sunday 1 September 2024

We're back. The transfer window has slammed shut, and with that the die is cast and another season of Premier League action awaits. It's a season chock-full of narrative and drama. Can anyone stand in the way of Manchester City's quest to turn the world's greatest football league into a one-club contest? Can Arne Slot slot into the Jurgen Klopp-shaped hole at Anfield? Will Arsenal finally go one better than oh-so-near and return to the summit of English football? Watch this space.


premier league 2024/25 preview


Premier League 2024/25 Predictions in a nutshell:
Champions: Arsenal
Champions League qualifiers: Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United
Relegated: Leicester, Crystal Palce, Southampton
Golden Boot winner: Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
Golden Glove winner: Ederson (Manchester City)
Player to watch: Cole Palmer (Chelsea)
New signing to watch: Riccardo Calafiori (Arsenal)
Young player to watch: Kobbie Mainoo (Manchester United)
First manager to get the sack: Sean Dyche (Everton)
Shock of the season: Arsenal show some bottle and win something?


ARSENAL
Nickname: The Gunners
Ground: Emirates Stadium
Capacity: 60,000
Position last season: 2nd
Manager: Mikel Arteta
 
Close, but no cigar. While the Gunners have improved considerably in recent seasons with Kroenke's heavy financial investment, it seems there is nothing they can do to get one over title rivals and now four-time consecutive champions Manchester City. 

That doesn't mean they won't try, and Kroenke has once again opened his war chest to the tune of £100million, bringing in goalkeeper David Raya on a permanent deal, along with Real Sociedad midfielder Mikel Merino. But it is the signing of Riccardo Calafiori that makes the greatest statement of intent. The Italian fullback had been one of the summer's most sought after transfers, and the fact that he has ended up at the Emirates is certainly something of a coup.

But, as we have seen time and time again, it's not enough just to spend money. You need to spend it well, and put in place the infrastructure to get the most out of your assets. In this regard, Mikel Arteta deserves great credit. He has crafted a very excellent side here, built around captain Martin Ødegaard, with quality in every position. This is football and anything can happen, particularly with the threat of a potential points deduction looming over the Mancunian powerhouse. If there is a time for Arsenal to finally take back the title, it's now.

Key Signing: Riccardo Calafiori
Key Man: Martin Odegaard
Verdict: Title contenders, but can they keep consistent when the pressure is on?


ASTON VILLA
Nickname: The Villans
Ground: Villa Park
Capacity: 42,095
Last season: 4th
Manager: Unai Emery

Last season's surprise top four finish will not be soon forgotten at Villa Park. Unai Emery has defied every expectation to bring the storied Birmingham club back to the upper echelons of English football. But while optimism is at an all time high, caution is warranted. 

A repeat of these successes is not guaranteed, particularly with the added demands of European football. But Villa have been busy this summer, building their squad out to withstand these expected rigors. No fewer than fifteen signings, not all of whom, in fairness, are expected to feature, have joined the club, including a big money move for Everton midfielder Amadou Onana. But it is the signing of Chelsea youngster, and last year's Champions League runner up, Ian Maatsen that promises the greatest reward. It's a shrewd signing that will bring some additional attacking flair.

The main man, of course, is Ollie Watkins. The 28 year old forward, scorer of some 27 goals for Villa last season, begins the season on the back of an impressive summer showing for England. He will be central to everything they do.

Key Signing: Ian Maatsen
Key Man: Ollie Watkins
Verdict: Sometimes you need to take a step backwards to move forward. A top 7 finish will be a good result.


BOURNEMOUTH
Nickname: The Cherries
Ground: Dean Court
Capacity: 11,364
Last season: 12th
Manager: Andoni Iraola

If we can say one thing, it's that Bournemouth have shown themselves to be no pushover at this level. The south coast club have consolidated their position in the top flight, and appear to be aiming for greater things. But just how much of that is achievable?

The appointment of hotly tipped manager Andoni Iraola has been hailed as something of a coup, and they have backed their man in the transfer market this summer, most notably with the £40million signing of Brazilian forward Evanilson. But at the same time, doubts persist over Iraola's long term position, while the club have been unable to retain a key player in last year's successes, Chelsea youth product Dominic Solanke.

The truth is, Bournemouth will do well to match last season's finish. Their rise in recent years has been impressive, but work is needed to maintain that level. The expectations among the Bournemouth faithful will likely be a realistic ambition for a mid-table finish, which would represent significant progress and stability for the club. The fans will be crucial in rallying behind the team during tough stretches of the season.

Key Signing: Evanilson
Key Man: Lewis Cook
Verdict: Not completely out of the relegation mix, but should survive.


BRENTFORD

Nickname: The Bees
Ground: Brentford Community Stadium
Capacity: 17,250
Last season: 16th
Manager: Thomas Frank

Has time run out on the great Brentford fairytale? It's been an impressive few seasons in the top flight for the Bees, one which has seen them take great strides off the pitch as well as on, establishing themselves as a football club of note, with a shiny new stadium, an impressive cast of talent, and some eye-catching football.

Last season was all too close, a 16th finish leaving the club only just clear of relegation. There's been a few good pieces of business this summer, most notably in the capture of Liverpool youngsters Sepp van den Berg and Fabio Carvalho. But the overwhelming view among the fans is that not enough has been done to patch up the flaws in last season's squad, and particularly with the ongoing doubts over one key player in particular.

A full season with Ivan Toney will help, if they can keep him (and deal a devastating blow if they can't), but this is a team that needs to be strengthening this squad right now, and instead there looms the threat that they could enter the season a weaker proposition, and a genuine relegation contender.

Key Signing: Fabio Carvalho
Key Man: Ivan Toney
Verdict: In the relegation mix, but with a good chance of survival.


BRIGHTON
Nickname: The Seagulls
Ground: Falmer Stadium
Capacity: 31,800
Last season: 11th
Manager: Fabian Hürzeler

Of all the clubs to rise into the Premier League in recent seasons, Brighton appear to stand out as the one which has achieved the most sustainable success. A very well-run outfit which has turned the coastal club into a recognisable brand and a marketable organisation. 

There is no shortage of ambition here, and Brighton have invested some £150million into the squad this summer. True to form, this has been focused on the kind of young, promising talent that has delivered such strong results in years gone by. They have done well by this strategy, both financially and in footballing terms, but at some point they are going to need more mature, developed players if they want to challenge for the next level. This requires either a change in strategy, or to retain their talented youngsters, something which has proved difficult.

At this point, Brighton have clearly established their top flight credentials and it is difficult to see them going back down in the near future. They have performed to a high quality and done so consistently. The trouble is that once you get to this level, the other teams around you are just that good that it makes further progress very difficult. 

Key Signing: Yankuba Minteh
Key Man: Kaoru Mitoma
Verdict: Will be looking for a solid top half finish to continue their progress.


CHELSEA
Nickname: Blues
Ground: Stamford Bridge
Capacity: 41,837
Last season: 6th 
Manager: Enzo Maresca

I could write an entire article about the issues at Chelsea. Suffice it to say, the Clearlake era has been nothing short of disastrous. Billions spent, three years into this project, and we still barely know what this project is supposed to be. To call it a mess is offensive to messes. And just when it was starting to look like progress was being made, Clearlake forces Pochettino out the door, and we start over from scratch once again.

Yet despite all that, there is potential in this team. Much has been written about the club's strategy of signing young, unpolished players, but there is no denying the talent on offer. People forget just how young the likes of Moises Caicedo and Nicolas Jackson still are, despite their prominence in the squad. Levi Colwill can make the odd error, sure, but at just 21 years of age he is still far ahead of most of generation. The club's unwillingness to sign a top level goalkeeper will cost the club points this season, no doubt, but in Filip Jorgensen, they have signed one of the top rated prospects in Europe. If he gets his shot ahead of Sanchez, he could well be a major coup for the club. 

Then there is Cole Palmer, the one undeniable success story of the Clearlake era. Palmer was unfancied upon his surprise transfer to Chelsea last summer, but he silenced the naysayers, notching up an astonishing 40 goals and assists in his debut season. Still just 22 years of age, Palmer increasingly looks to be the player around which this Chelsea team will be built, and on the basis of this summer's performances, that day may soon come for the national side as well. The club's scattershot approach to transfers has been messy, and resulted in many more misses than hits, but you only need a few hits like Palmer to craft a top side.

So what can Chelsea realistically achieve this season? Much will depend on how the new manager adapts to top flight football. It seems to be the "in" thing right now for clubs to take a chance on unproven, exciting managers. We will need to wait and see if it pays off here. 

Key Signing: Filip Jörgensen
Key Man: Cole Palmer
Verdict: Such has been the air of chaos and inconsistency at this club, I could reasonably believe a finish of anywhere from 4th to 14th. Median result? 7th.


CRYSTAL PALACE
Nickname: Eagles, Glaziers
Ground: Selhurst Park
Capacity: 25,486
Last season: 10th
Manager: Oliver Glasner
 
Oliver Glasner has made a strong start to his career at Selhurst Park, bringing style and some impressive victories to Crystal Palace, who ended last season on a fine run of form. It was enough for Glasner to be linked with the vacant Bayern position over the summer. The Eagles managed to keep him, but now the question is whether they can do the same for their playing staff.

Palace have already lost key player Michael Olise (to Bayern, as it happens), and rumours abound relating to Eberechi Eze and Marc Guehi as we enter the final days of the transfer window. The expectation among Palace fans is for the club to build on its position and make a push up into the top half of the table, but much will depend on keeping these top talents at the club.

On the transfer front, the club will be hoping that new arrivals Daichi Kamada (who worked under Glasner at Frankfurt) and Ismaila Sarr can make up for the departure of Olise. I think Palace fans will need to temper their expectations this season.

Key Signing: Daichi Kamada
Key Man: Eberechi Eze
Verdict: Palace could be a relegation risk, this is very much a transition year and expectations should be set accordingly.


EVERTON
Nickname: Toffees
Ground: Goodison Park
Capacity: 40,170
Last season: 15th
Manager: Sean Dyche

In the annals of underperforming Premier League teams, few earn their place more than Everton. Last season looked particularly bleak for the Toffees. A perennially struggling side that couldn't seem to find a consistent plan or manager, and a points deduction on top of that. But Sean Dyche deserves some credit for the work he has done, doing what he has so often done elsewhere in bringing the best out of a rough situation. 

Everton ultimately secured safety with just three matches to spare, but the points deduction leaves a somewhat misleading picture. Indeed, without that handicap, Everton would have finished a respectable 12th, considerably above pre-season expectations. 

There is every hope, then, that the club may have turned a page and be on the right path forward at last. But as we have seen so many times before, Dyche is more of a bandaid than a rehabilitation programme. He'll keep you out of relegation, but building on that towards something is another matter. Add to that some meagre transfer activity, combined with the loss of key man Amadou Onana, and it is clear that some risk still remains.

Key Signing: Iliman Ndiaye
Key Man: Jordan Pickford
Verdict: Not a relegation favourite, but under greater risk than they would like to believe.


FULHAM
Nickname: The Cottagers
Ground: Craven Cottage
Capacity: 24,500
Last season: 13th
Manager: Marco Silva

As Fulham gears up for the 2024/25 Premier League season, the team is looking to build on its recent form and secure a stable position in the league. Under the continued leadership of Marco Silva, Fulham has become familiar with mid-table security and aims to consolidate this status despite experiencing some significant player exits recently.

The summer transfer business has been a mixed bag. Fulham has welcomed back the prodigal son Ryan Sessegnon, alongside acquiring Emile Smith Rowe and Jorge Cuenca, promising to add youth and dynamism to the squad. However, the departure of key players like Joao Palhinha and Bobby Decordova-Reid means the team will need to adjust quickly to maintain their competitive edge.

Fulham fans remain optimistic about the club’s direction under Silva's management. The community around Craven Cottage is hopeful that the strategic signings and tactical stability can at least maintain the present level, with a comfortable mid-table finish.

Key Signing: Emile Smith Rowe
Key Man: Bernd Leno
Verdict: Should be safe, and achieve a similar mid-table finish to last season.


IPSWICH
Nickname: Tractor Boys
Ground: Portman Road
Capacity: 30,014
Last season: Promoted (Runner up)
Manager: Kieran McKenna
 
Ipswich Town returns to the Premier League for the 2024/25 season after a 22-year absence, fueled by back-to-back promotions that saw them rise from League One to the top flight in just two seasons. As they prepare for their comeback season at the highest level of English football, the anticipation and excitement among the fans and within the club are palpable.

Kieran McKenna finds himself as one of the hot properties in football management, having been linked to both Chelsea and Manchester United this past summer. It is believe that, had United parted ways with Erik ten Hag, McKenna would have been the replacement. It may well be that this remains his next destination, but for now he will be looking to use this opportunity, his first in top flight football, to further develop his reputation and acumen.

There's no denying the magnitude of the challenge that awaits. But this is a tough side, and they have strengthened well over the summer. The permanent transfer of last season's loan signing Omari Hutchinson is a brilliant move, and I think Hutchinson could well surprise a lot of people this season. Meanwhile, the arrival of veteran midfielder Kalvin Phillips on loan will provide some essential steel and a winning mentality. 

Key Signing: Omari Hutchinson
Key Man: Omari Hutchinson
Verdict: A tough battle for survival awaits.


LEICESTER CITY
Nickname: The Foxes
Ground: King Power Stadium
Capacity: 32,312
Last season: Promoted (Champions)
Manager: Steve Cooper
 
Back in the top flight for the Foxes, with survival first and foremost on their minds. Leicester still fancy themselves to be a "big club" (it was only a few years ago that they won the Premier League, after all) and see the top flight as their natural home, but the challenge that lies ahead is a daunting one.

Firstly, Leicester will have the added complexity of adapting to a new era, with last season's Championship winning Manager Enzo Maresca having left to join Chelsea over the summer. The replacement is Steve Cooper, a manager who most recently performed the feat of survival with an unfancied Nottingham Forest side. But Cooper is no Maresca. This will be a very different brand of football, and a period of adaptation is required.

This is far from a bad side. Even with his ageing years, Jamie Vardy is still a potent threat, while Harry Winks and Wilfred Ndidi offer much in the midfield. The permanent signing of Abdul Fatawu, on loan with the club last season, could also prove a shrewd move.

The big elephant in the room is Leicester's upcoming PSR verdict, which leaves the threat of a potential points deduction looming over them. Without this, I would fancy this team for survival, but if they do get hit with a points deduction... well it's an uphill battle ahead.

Key Signing: Abdul Fatawu
Key Man: Harry Winks
Verdict: Survival may depend on the impending PSR verdict.


LIVERPOOL
Nickname: Reds
Ground: Anfield
Capacity: 54,074
Last season: 3rd
Manager: Arne Slot
 
The end of an era. Jurgen Klopp will be revered on Merseyside as the man who brought the Premier League title back to Anfield. His has been a singularly successful period of stewardship, and he leaves an unenviable absence in his wake. The man tasked with taking over is Arne Slot, an Eredivisie champion at Feyenoord.

While Arne will be looking to make his mark on Liverpool, activity over the summer has been relatively minimal. Only two signings at the time of writing: Italian hotshot Federico Chiesa, formerly of Juventus and son of the famed Enrico Chiesa, and Giorgi Mamardashvili, a very hotly tipped young goalkeeper who recently impressed at the Euros. Alisson is still the man in goal, but the signing of Mamardashvili suggests they are starting to consider the future.

Otherwise, this is much the same Liverpool side you know and love. They will compete once again, but a title challenge amid an already difficult transition period may be too much to expect.

Key Signing: Federico Chiesa
Key Man: Mo Salah
Verdict: Will expect a top four finish.


MANCHESTER CITY
Nickname: Blues
Ground: Etihad Stadium
Capacity: 55,017
Last season: Champions
Manager: Pep Guardiola

Champions and, arguably, favourites to win it again. Manchester City's squad is one of the world's strongest, has depth for miles, and probably the single best footballer on the planet in Erling Haaland.

Relatively minimal transfer activity this summer. İlkay Gündoğan has re-joined from Barcelona, presumably for depth, while exciting Brazilian youngster Savinho joins from Troyes. Not much has changed, and frankly not much needed to. 

This is an excellent team, but at some point surely their winning streak has to come to an end? The core off Pep's squad is, after all, ageing, and one has to wonder if the hunger for victory remains for a side that has already won it all. They sit, surrounded by rivals desperate to claim that title. Will their quality shine through once again?

Key Signing: Savinho
Key Man: Erling Haaland
Verdict: A major title favourite.


MANCHESTER UNITED
Nickname: Red Devils
Ground: Old Trafford
Capacity: 74,879
Last season: 8th
Manager: Erik ten Hag
 
How quickly things can change. A few months ago, Erik ten Hag's job hung in the balance, with many expecting him to leave at the end of last season. But new owner Jim Ratcliffe is clearly a man with patience, and saw fit to offer a reprieve. A new wave of optimism now seems to be overtaking the club, but is this really the start of a new era, or just another false dawn?

I said last season that United needed to target a top four finish, and a minimum. Suffice it to say, an 8th place finish fell far short of expectations. I still contend that, on paper, this is a good side that should be at least challenging for European contention. 

Reinforcements have arrived, most notably in the defence with the signings of Leny Yoro and Matthijs de Ligt, a former Erik ten Hag scion previously considered one of the hottest talents in world football. Manuel Ugarte also joins from PSG as a player with some hype about him. The success of the season may hinge on the performances of both established stars and new signings. Rashford's continued form in attack, combined with the leadership of Fernandes.

Key Signing: Matthijs de Ligt
Key Man: Bruno Fernandes
Verdict: Will be hoping to improve upon last season's finish and mount a real campaign for top four.


NEWCASTLE
Nickname: The Magpies, Toon
Ground: St James' Park
Capacity: 52,305
Last season: 7th
Manager: Eddie Howe

One can't help but feel mixed emotions for Newcastle. The hype and promise that accompanied their takeover a few years ago seems to have largely fizzled. Not that they find themselves in a bad way at all, but nor do they look to be making the kind of moves that would really see them compete for the top prizes, which had, after all, been the ambition.

That ambition still remains, but it won't help matters that rumours continue to swirl over the future of manager Eddie Howe, currently linked with the England job. The club nevertheless are hoping to be well prepared for whatever the future holds, with a concerted focus this summer on young talent. Chelsea academy product Lewis Hall makes his loan move permanent, while Sheffield United's promising forward William Osula also joins. Hall in particular is a genuine prospect, and looks every bit a future international starter for club and country.

The squad is a strong one, with much to offer. Kieran Trippier can turn a game with his setpieces, while Alexsander Isak has proven himself a force in attack. But the heart of this team beats around Joelinton, re-invented as a midfield general.

Key Signing: Lewis Hall
Key Man: Joelinton
Verdict: The potential is there, but perhaps not enough about them to push for more than top 6.


NOTTINGHAM FOREST

Nickname: The Reds
Ground: City Ground
Capacity: 30,445
Last season: 17th
Manager: Nuno Espírito Santo
 
If last season's near miss was a warning, it's been heeded by The Reds' owners, with no fewer than 9 players signed this summer, and two more in on loan. But despite the close call, there's a lot to like about this Forest side.

Morgan Gibbs-White has been retained, an energetic and intelligent midfielder, while there are hints that former Chelsea academy golden boy Callum Hudson-Odoi may be starting to hit his potential. Jota Silva is a promising signing, his skills and energy often drawing comparisons with Jack Grealish, while the experience and set pieces of loan signing James Ward-Prowse will pay dividends.

With Nuno Espirito Santo at the helm, Nottingham Forest's 2024/25 season is about building stability and showing marked improvement from the nail-biting finish of the last campaign. If the new signings gel quickly and the squad adapts to Santo’s tactical plans, Forest could well achieve survival, but they face a difficult challenge.

Key Signing: Jota Silva
Key Man: Morgan Gibbs-White
Verdict: At risk for relegation.


SOUTHAMPTON
Nickname: The Saints
Ground: St Mary's Stadium
Capacity: 32,384
Last season: Promoted (Playoff)
Manager: Russell Martin
 
I mean... someone has to be relegated, right? With no disrespect to Southampton, on paper they would be considered one of the league's weaker sides. To their credit, they clearly acknowledge this, signing a whopping 18 players, not all of whom presumably will feature in the first team squad. 

These new faces vary from the veteran goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale, to promising forward Cameron Archer, and the talented anchor Flynn Downes, who shone on loan last year. Equally intriguing will be to see how the hotly tipped young defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis handles his first season of top flight football.

This is football, and anything can happen. But this Southampton team look likely to struggle. 

Key Signing: Flynn Downes
Key Man: Kyle Walker-Peters
Verdict: Will be in and around the relegation battle.


TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
Nickname: Spurs
Ground: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Capacity: 62,850
Last season: 5th
Manager: Ange Postecoglou
 
Is this the year Tottenham come good? It's almost a meme at this point, but after coming so close to a top four finish last season, and with the good vibes still following Ange Postecoglou and his men, the Spurs faithful have to feel that they have as good a chance as anyone.

Postecoglou's approach is characterized by intense, high-stakes football—a style that initially proved highly effective but seemed to tax the squad as the season progressed. This season, the focus will be on achieving a better balance that maintains their aggressive play while managing player stamina and performance over the long haul.

Son is absolutely still the key man in this post Harry Kane era, but there are some uncharacteristically exciting new signings to help bolster that front line. Former Chelsea academy starlet Dominic Solanke signs on the back of a stellar season with Bournemouth, hoping that this could finally be his moment to hit the heights so often hinted at. He arrives alongside the talented youngsters Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall. It's a promising time for Tottenham, but one still feels like more is required if they are ever going to challenge the big dogs in this league. 

Key Signing: Dominic Solanke
Key Man: Son Heung-Min
Verdict: A top four contender.


WEST HAM UNITED
Nickname: The Hammers
Ground: London Stadium
Capacity: 62,500
Last season: 9th
Manager: Julen Lopetegui

Deciding to move on from David Moyes can't have been easy for the Hammers. After all, Moyes has turned the fortunes of this club around in recent years, re-establishing them as a top flight side of merit. Under Lopetegui, West Ham is expected to continue refining a style that balances solid defensive organization with creative attacking play. The manager’s tactical proficiency will be crucial as the team looks to improve on their previous mid-table finish and push for European qualification spots.

The key to this side is in the midfield. Mohammed Kudus, Lucas Paquetá and Tomáš Souček make for a very formidable lineup, while up front Jarrod Bowen has firmly established himself as a top talent and one of the key players to keep an eye on this season. While they've spent big money on the likes of Luis Guilherme and Max Kilman, it's the signing of Aaron Wan-Bissaka that could prove the most adroit, adding experience and quality to that right flank.

A primary challenge for West Ham will be consistency. The team has shown potential in flashes but will need to perform more consistently against both top-tier and similarly ranked teams. However, the refreshed squad provides an opportunity to reset expectations and aim higher, with a particular focus on securing more wins at home at the London Stadium, which could prove pivotal in climbing the table.

Key Signing: Aaron Wan-Bissaka
Key Man: Jarrod Bowen
Verdict: Top half finish, but not threatening the clubs further up the table.


WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS
Nickname: Wolves
Ground: Molineux Stadium
Capacity: 32,050
Last season: 14th
Manager: Gary O'Neil

Last, but not least, Wolves. For a number of years, Wolves were seen as one of the next big things in English football. With deep pockets, some shrewd business, and hugely ambitious owners, Wolves were shaping up to be a very fine squad with the potential of pushing on into Europe. That era seems to have passed now, with the club slumping in the last few seasons to lower mid table. 

I think this club has established itself enough that people are largely overlooking the potential difficulties they face this season. This summer has seen both the captain and the best player leave the squad, and a chaotic, unfocused transfer window offers little to suggest that they will be adequately replaced.

The initial weeks are anticipated to be crucial for Wolverhampton Wanderers. They face a challenging opener at Arsenal this Saturday, followed by matches against Chelsea, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Liverpool, and Manchester City in five of their next seven games. By November, the question remains: will they be well-tempered by their challenges, or overwhelmed?

Key Signing: Rodrigo Gomes
Key Man: Hwang Hee-chan
Verdict: Without quality reinforcements will struggle, and perhaps risk relegation.


Predicted table:
1. Arsenal
2. Manchester City
3. Liverpool
4. Manchester United
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Aston Villa
7. Chelsea
8. Newcastle United
9. West Ham United
10. Brighton
11. Fulham
12. Everton
13. Bournemouth
14. Brentford
15. Nottingham Forest
16. Wolverhampton Wanderers
17. Ipswich
18. Leicester City
19. Crystal Palace
20. Southampton






Friday 26 July 2024

Are you not entertained? There is rarely a dull moment in American politics, and this week delivered a particularly historic curveball, as incumbent President Joe Biden withdrew his re-election bid, throwing his endorsement behind Vice President Kamala Harris. How did this happen? Why? What does it mean for the upcoming election? Let's talk about it.


2024 us presidential congress election house senate trump biden democrat republican
When this blog last spoke about the election in our way too early preview back in March, we set the baseline for what to expect from the 2024 election. As a relatively legislatively accomplished President, absent of major scandal, and presiding over a roaring economy, Joe Biden was in a strong position for re-election. History tells us that a President in his position is an overwhelming favourite for re-election.  

At the time, I wrote that the number one risk to Biden's re-election bid, the thing that could potentially undermine all the advantages he held as an incumbent of a successful administration, was his age and health. In the end, that ended up being precisely what came to pass.

It became very clear in that ill-fated first Presidential debate that Biden's age was starting to catch up with him, and that his decline had clearly been worse than was publicly known. But to be clear, it was not the flubs, the mixed up names and other slips of the tongue that raised concern - his similarly aged opponent has more than his fair share of these - but the physical frailty and the lack of attention. This election is not just about who we want to be President in January, it's about who we want to be President in four years, and it became all too clear that Joe Biden does not have another four years of this highly demanding job within him.

So, like George Washington before him, Joe Biden did what was in the best interest of the country, and stepped aside, endorsing his Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him. This can't have been an easy decision. Few in power choose willingly to part with it when they have the choice, and indeed it is hard to imagine his opponent ever making a similar choice in the interest of serving his country. 

The primary driver behind this decision will have been the upcoming election, and the increasing doubts as to whether Joe Biden would be able to beat Donald Trump. Now to be clear, the general consensus had been grossly underestimating the chances that Biden could still win this election. The way pundits spoke of the race, you would think Biden was down 10 points, when in reality he was down maybe 2 points, some of which was likely to be a temporary post-debate dip, and Trump riding a bump from the Republican national convention. Polls were still showing this as a very competitive race, and any suggestion that it was well and truly out of Biden's reach is more "vibes" based than anything borne in the data.

But at the end of the day, a decision needed to be made quickly with the Democratic National Convention approaching. I suspect that, ultimately, it was not so much the current polling deficit that sealed the decision, so much as the potential for further age-related setbacks further down the line. It was a high risk and a risk that did not need to be taken. 

The end result is that Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee in November, with the opportunity to make history as the first woman to be elected President of the United States.

What are Kamala's chances in this election? The potential upside is clear. Joe Biden had a great number of advantages behind his bid, and Donald Trump a great number of detriments. The fact that Biden was polling competitively with Trump in spite of his age-related issues makes that clear. One would expect that another Democrat without this major weakness, but still able to take advantage of her party's strengths, would poll better. Add to this the fact that Kamala was polling at a similar level to Biden, despite a lower name recognition - and thus, more room to grow - and it would seem that Kamala comes into this race with a ceiling that is potentially far higher than Biden's.

Indeed Kamala's campaign is off to a near perfect start. Announcing the switch at the close of the RNC was a master stroke, effectively halting any momentum Trump may have received from his party's headline event. Not to mention, it comes at a time when Republicans are more or less locked in to their ticket, with less room to react to the change in circumstances. 

In the first 24 hours, Kamala raised a record breaking $86million. At the time of writing, she has raised more than $200million this week, a new one week record. In the polls, Harris started level with Biden, a few points below Trump. But after just a few days, most polls are showing her level or ahead. Reuters/Ipsos has her 4pts ahead of Trump nationally. New York Times, a pollster that until now has been an outlier in showing strong Trump numbers, swung from +6 Trump to a tie. Kamala's net favourability is surging and has overtaken Trump. If this trend continues (a big "if", mind), Kamala is likely to lead in the polls soon.

The mood in the campaign has changed completely. Suddenly, it's the Trump campaign on defence, looking bewildered and unsure of how to proceed. Their attacks this week have flailed between the baffling (Kamala laughs too much) to the explicitly racist and sexist. Already there are signs that Donald Trump is looking for excuses to back out of the remaining scheduled debates. The momentum is very much with Kamala Harris, and the Trump campaign is running scared.

None of this is helped by Trump's pick for Vice President. Even before Biden dropped out, JD Vance seemed a terrible decision. Another Putinist Republican who exists solely to echo Trump's slogans and does little to expand the appeal of the ticket. I mean, Nikki Haley was right there and back on board. Even Burgum or Tim Scott would have been something. Vance is an absolutely baffling pick. Unpopular, unappealing, poorly vetted (if the stories coming out this week are any indication), and now it's too late for them to do anything about it - or very, very difficult and painful to do so anyway.

It's still early days. Who knows if Kamala's momentum continues, or if it lasts. Right now it's looking like there's more upside ahead than not. Kamala can expect additional momentum from her upcoming VP announcement and the Democratic National Convention, not to mention Trump's potential exposure in his upcoming criminal procedures. It's still entirely likely that Trump gets sentenced for his fraud convictions before the election, after all.

There will be a lot more to say and write about this in the coming days. It remains to be seen how, exactly the electoral math will change with these new candidates. In general, Harris' numbers are up pretty much across the board, but so far the most notable difference appears to be in Georgia, with polls now showing a tied race in a state that was previously considered to be a long shot for Biden.

It is hard to see this as anything other than a colossal misstep for Republicans. They were hammering Biden hard to drop out of the race, but clearly never countenanced the idea that he may actually do so. Now, much like the dog who caught the car, they got what they wanted and have no idea what to do with it. That error in strategy may end up costing them the election.









Sunday 19 May 2024

Another Premier League campaign in the history books and it was... basically what we expected. Manchester City did claim a record breaking fourth consecutive title, but were unexpectedly pressed until the last day by an impressive Arsenal title charge. At the foot of the table, no mercy for the newcomers, as all three newly promoted clubs received their marching orders, a stark reminder of the massive step up that the Premier League requires.


premier league 2023 2024 manchester city champions

Is the Premier League becoming predictable? If the fact that I'm lazily reusing the same image as last year is any indication, yes a little. The league is waiting for a club to come along that can step up to challenge City, and while Arsenal have given it a go, the lack of credible competition from the club's biggest clubs such as Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea has made it all too easy for Pep's boys in recent seasons. Liverpool, City's main title rivals of late, have the air of a club in stagnation, and while Jurgen Klopp will be missed, there is also a sense that a little fresh impetus may be required. Manchester United, for all the hype, have suffered yet another false dawn, and the glory days are looking far away indeed. Of City's potential rivals, arguably Chelsea look the club with the clearest upwards trajectory, but the Blues have struggled for consistency and fitness, their 6th place finish making clear that they are still some way off challenging at the top of the table.

Outside of the title race, Unai Emery continues to impress, improving upon Aston Villa's already impressive 7th place the previous year with a remarkable top four finish that will see the Birmingham club return to the Champions League for the first time since 1983. Newcastle failed to live up to their pre-season hype, with a solid season that nevertheless did not deliver the kind of progress their wealthy owners would have hoped - the disastrous £60million signing of Sandro Tonali, who would go on to miss the entire season following a ban for gambling, certainly didn't help.

As for the Premier League team of the season, predictably good showing from Manchester City and Arsenal. Jordan Pickford gets my nod for best goalkeeper. While Raya may have slightly better statistics, he also has a far better defence. The fact that Pickford even comes close is, for me, the more impressive accomplishment. Given Aston Villa's remarkable season, it was a very difficult decision not to include Ollie Watkins, but at the end of the day Erling Haaland is still the league's top scorer by some distance. It's remarkable that a 27 goal season is being viewed by some pundits as a disappointment!

Now let's get to some awards and the team of the season:


The Ephemeric Premier League Awards 2024:

Winners: Manchester City 

Relegated: Luton Town, Burnley, Sheffield United

Player of the Year: Phil Foden (Manchester City)

U-21 Player of the Year: Cole Palmer (Chelsea)

Best Goalkeeper: Jordan Pickford (Everton)

Top Scorer: Erling Haaland (Manchester City) (27)

Most Assists: Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) (13) 

Manager of the Year: Unai Emery (Aston Villa)

Best signing of the season: Cole Palmer (Chelsea)

Worst signing of the season: Sandro Tonali (Newcastle United)


The Ephemeric Premier League Team of the Season 2024:

english epl bpl premier league best team xi of the season 2023
So there we have it, another season of Premier League football gone by. We'll see you again next season!






Thursday 2 May 2024

Created by Graham Wagner, Geneva Robertson-Dworet, Jonathan Nolan
Network Amazon
Starring Ella Purnell, Aaron Moten, Walton Goggins
Genre Science Fiction, Satire
Running Time 45-74 minutes


fallout videogame amazon bethesda new vegas ella purnell walton goggins best new show 2024
Fans of geeky TV series are eating well. Hot on the heels of Netflix's really-pretty-good 3 Body Problem adaptation last month, comes Amazon with an even less likely adaptation of the celebrated Fallout series of videogames. 

So first of all, what is Fallout? In terms of its setting, Fallout takes inspiration from midcentury imaginings of the "world of tomorrow". Thinly veiled Cold War propaganda about the coming atomic age and how a combination of nuclear power and capitalism would bring us all flying cars, robot butlers and commuting to outer space. Fallout imagines a world where the future came to pass exactly as those 1950s propaganda films predicted: a world of all-American nuclear families, where everyone looks, dresses and talks like the 1950s, living in Googie houses and surrounded by sci-fi tech rendered with a retro-futuristic "atom-punk" aesthetic. But with that future came the darker side of atomic power, nuclear war. 

So Fallout is a satire of the politics and consumerism of the era. A cautionary tale against rampant jingoism and unregulated greed. Set in the nuclear wasteland of that obliterated world of marvels, each game in the series typically involves a series of factions and characters fighting over what remains, each with their own comically zealous ideology. 

Amazon's new TV adaptation adheres very closely to both the tone and moralism of the source material. This is a deeply silly world, with colourful characters that range from hopelessly naive to comically selfish, but always with a grain of truth to their motivations. It is also a very violent world, as the cold hard reality of the horrors of war continually crash against the blinkered optimism of its premise. This violence is over-the-top and bloody, just as fans of the games will expect. TV fans can imagine something like The Boys to get a sense of its severity.

Without spoiling too much of the story, Fallout follows three main protagonists. The first is Lucy, a young woman who has grown up in a vault, constructed pre-war to shelter survivors until enough time had passed to allow them to reclaim the surface. This is a classic Fallout trope that mirrors the opening of most of the games. Starting off in a vault, with characters completely alien to the shenanigans happening on the surface, is a great way to introduce newcomers to the setting, allowing both the character and viewers to discover this world at the same time.

The second is The Ghoul, a pre-war actor heavily irradiated by an atomic blast in the war, rendered horrifically disfigured, yet functionally ageless by his mutations. Scarred by this post-war world, and dark secrets in his past, The Ghoul serves as a more experienced window into the setting, cynical and jaded, his sense of morality long-since eroded.

Possibly most interesting is the third protagonist, Maximus. Maximus is a squire in training with the Brotherhood of Steel, a faction modeled on the old medieval Orders of Knighthood. Their objective is, essentially, to seize and hoard all modern technology from the wasteland, in order to prevent humanity from using it again to destroy itself. The Brotherhood has always been one of the more fascinatingly grey factions in this world, torn between the often cruel fanaticism of their ideology and a de facto role as protectors of the wasteland denizens. Fittingly, Maximus is one of the more enigmatic characters in the franchise. Often driven by acts of nobility and a sense of wanting to "do good", but more often driven by his ego, ambition and desire for self-preservation.

There is so much about this adaptation that is on point. Amazon have nailed the look and feel of this world, from the visual aesthetics, to its music. The set and prop design is incredible, imagining all kinds of whacky retro-futuristic technology that has never existed, but looks functional.

The writing is also very strong, capturing the satirical tone of the source material, the humour, homages to pop culture and pulp fiction. The story is a little derivative, it has to be said. The whole "vault dweller leaving the vault to find a family member" has been done at least a few times already in Fallout. For the most part though, the story is fine. If the story could be a little more original, though, the character stories are thoroughly excellent. The main protagonists all have fascinating arcs with plenty of tantalising details left to be explored in future seasons. The secondary characters, too, are great, and I was surprised by how engaged I found myself by some of these B-plotlines.

There are some moments where the dialogue can fall flat. The show is always trying to be so subversive and irreverent that sometimes can lead to exchanges that are more cringe than satirical absurdity. A particular scene between Maximus and Lucy talking about the mechanics of sex comes to mind.

Ultimately, any quibbles I have with this series are minor. Fallout stands as a rare example of something that is, at the same time, a great adaptation and also a work of high quality in its own right. The series fits perfectly into the world that already existed, but also stands on its own and expands that world. 

Videogame adaptations have historically had a bad reputation attached, although this seems to be changing in recent years. Both Sonic and Mario have had well-received big screen outings, and then The Last of Us came along and became one of the biggest and most critically acclaimed television hits of 2023. Fallout seems to have followed that trend. It is easily one of the best videogame adaptations yet created, one that looks set to become both a critical and commercial hit. But where Last of Us was a direct adaptation of the story in that game, Fallout is an entirely original tale, one that can be taken in any number of directions. I can't wait to see what comes next.









Wednesday 24 April 2024

Genre Electro-swing
Label Verywise Studio
Producers Caravan Palace


gangbusters melody club caravan palace best new album 2024
In the electro-swing genre, few names hold as much cachet as Caravan Palace. Since their emergence in the late 2000s, the Parisian group has become the great mainstream success story of the genre, combining their jazz and swing influences with a modern club-infused style that manages to feel both fresh and retro at the same time.

If their recent work has shifted more into pop sensibilities, their new album Gangbusters Melody Club leans much more heavily towards the group's jazz roots. This is immediately apparent from their lead single and opening track MAD, a low-tempo brassy number that sounds like a surprisingly tense remix of Minnie the Moocher.

Fans of the group's more modern, dancey sounds will feel right at home with second single Mirrors, a track much more in the vein of Lone Digger or Plume. A bouncy, high-energy tune with an irresistibly toe-tapping chorus.

This is an album full of highlights, and this level of fun and energy is maintained throughout. Special 81 is another top track, with a kind of distorted big-band vibe, or Reverse with its fun tempo changes and sax-solo. But my personal favourite has to go to Raccoons, a super-funky swagger of a tune that is just bursting with fun. Of all the album's tracks, it is the one that sounds most different to the usual Caravan Palace fare, yet works so well.

Ultimately, Gangbusters Melody Club might be the best work yet from Caravan Palace, a sublime blend of modern dance sensibilities with retro influences that should appeal to a broad range of tastes. The production is silky smooth, with barely an ill-conceived beat within its dynamic, textured instrumentalisation. The whole thing is just a ton of fun.


Must Listen :
Raccoons
Mirrors
MAD
Special 81


Sunday 21 April 2024

Created by David Benioff, D.B. Weiss, Alexander Woo
Network Netflix
Starring Jovan Adepo, Eiza González, Jess Hong, Alex Sharp, Liam Cunningham
Genre Science Fiction
Running Time 44-63 minutes

3 three body problem dark forest liu cixin netflix best new show 2024
It is safe to say that I was skeptical when I heard Netflix were adapting Liu Cixin's seminal Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy, the first novel of which is titled The Three-Body Problem. As much as I love these books, it was difficult to imagine how they might be successfully transposed to the screen. This is, after all, a series that derives its success more from heady concepts than satisfying character-drama, with minimal action outside of the denouement of each novel.


I was even more skeptical when I heard that Netflix were putting David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, creators of the HBO fantasy drama Game of Thrones in charge of the adaptation. Not to belittle that series, which was obviously quite a critical and commercial success, but it seemed like an odd fit for such an intellectual, slow-burning piece of literature to be placed under their creative control. I certainly couldn't picture it.

It turns out I was wrong. Say what you want about Benioff and Weiss, but GoT shows that they clearly know how to make compelling TV that can expand even niche genres to a mass audience. With 3 Body Problem, it seems they may have done it again.

Reviewing an adaptation of something is always challenging. How much credit do you give an adaptation for the quality of its source material? To what extent can something be considered a good adaptation if it makes material changes to that material? 

It's a difficult balancing act to craft something that works in its own right, without losing the qualities that worked for the original. With their adaptation, Benioff and Weiss have made some pretty significant changes to the structure of the story, but for the most part these changes have proven to be good decisions.

To keep things relatively spoiler-free, this first season is a (mostly) straight adaptation of the first novel in the series, as well as the opening sections of the second novel. 3 Body Problem is set on present day Earth. Scientists have started mysteriously dying off in seemingly unrelated incidents, the only link being that each scientist had previously been sent a virtual reality game of mysterious origin. The series follows a group of five former students of one such scientist and their attempts to unravel the mystery, the truth of which portends a grave reality for mankind.

Right off the bat, fans of the novels will note some pretty immediate and significant changes. The original novel focused on a single protagonist, instead of five. I've seen some reviewers commenting that this character from the first novel was therefore "split" into five, with this decision usually being raised as some kind of criticism. To be clear, this is not true. If you see any reviewer commenting as such, then they are clearly only pretending to have read the books. What the writers have actually done is introduce the protagonists from later books at the beginning of the story. These aren't new characters, they're just appearing sooner than in the novels. 

While potentially controversial, I think this is a pretty smart choice. Television is different to literature. Whereas a novel might give you a dozen hours to get to know a character, the running time of a television show is far shorter. Introducing these characters, now, allows the TV audience to get to know and form a connection with these characters right from the start, rather than using up valuable narrative momentum to try and introduce unfamiliar characters later on.

In addition, to be quite frank, the original novels weren't perfect. A common criticism of the first book is that its protagonist lacks depth and personality, essentially functioning as a surrogate for the reader to learn about this world. In that sense, replacing their role in the story with the much more developed protagonists from later novels is a very shrewd choice that makes more efficient use of running time to develop compelling character arcs.

This also explains why the first season already makes a start on adapting the plot of the second novel. The protagonist of the second novel goes on to form a central figure in the mythos of the trilogy. If they didn't give us at least a taste of that now, that character would have had very little to do in this first season, making his later elevation in importance quite jarring.

So, while there are changes, in general I'm quite pleased with them. I think these changes make for better television and, in some cases, even fix flaws in the source material.

It's impressive how tight everything feels in this production. This is not a small cast, but for the most part each character is well-utilised. The showrunners manage to capture the key moments of the books, including some which are difficult to visualise, and often with creativity and ingenuity. The production quality, in general, is very high. The show simply looks great. The imagery, the special effects, the use of music, the moment-to-moment pacing and tension.

That's not to say 3 Body Problem is without its share of flaws. For whatever qualities they may have, Benioff and Weiss are not great dialogue writers. It's mostly fine, but there are a number of moments where characters will speak in stilited, unnatural ways that often feel like fourth wall breakers. It might be that they don't fully trust the audience to follow proceedings, or simply that they sometimes lack the dexterity to formulate the right dialogue. Performances are generally very good, but can occasionally feel a bit wonky. Often this is a direct result of the dialogue.

There is a slight issue in the pacing. Specifically, as the action crescendos towards the climax of the first novel, and then drops off immediately as the narrative switches to the plot of the second novel. It's pretty clear when that happens, and it does have the effect of the last few episodes feeling anti-climactic. 

Overall, I am pleasantly surprised. They've made a good effort at adapting a very tricky novel, and have come away with something that has broad appeal, without losing its substance. I'm very keen to see how they tackle the next two books. There are some very visually challenging scenes that they will need to figure out, and some real blockbuster moments of immense drama and scope. Unlike before, this time I can actually picture it working.











Tuesday 19 March 2024


.
This week saw a significant milestone in the 2024 elections, as Joe Biden and Donald Trump were mathematically confirmed to be their respective parties' nominees for the Presidential race, making it official that 2024 will see a rematch of the 2020 race. With the stage set, now seems a good time to take stock and provide a way-too-early preview of where things stand, and what we can expect as we head into the campaign.

2024 us presidential congress election house senate trump biden democrat republican

Setting the scene
While this week's primaries maybe have technically confirmed each party's presumptive nominee, in truth there has been little question of the outcome for some time. As the incumbent President, there was never any serious doubt that Biden would be nominated by the Democrats and, similarly, Trump's stranglehold on the Republican Party is such that his nomination, too, has seemed a foregone conclusion - although the level of anti-Trump sentiment during the primary has been surprising, more on that later.

While this may have seemed a foregone conclusion to political analysts, polling has consistently shown that most voters did not believe, or realise, that these two would end up being the candidates. This is a fascinating little quirk that illustrates the stark disconnect between political coverage and the average voter. While the politically engaged like to obsess over every slight news event and extrapolate how every headline might affect the electoral outcome, the truth is that most Americans are so disengaged that they weren't even aware of the overwhelming likelihood of this matchup. I flag this, as it will become relevant when we consider the predictive value of current polling.

One way or another, barring some unforeseen event, this is the Presidential race we have. So who will prevail? That is what I intend to consider with the rest of this article. It is, of course, far too early to make any kind of reasonable predictions or forecast. That will come closer to election day. But we can at least provide some general sense of the direction in which things are heading, and how they are likely to change in the coming months. 

It is also worth mentioning that, in addition to the Presidential election, 2024 will also see contests for the House and Senate. For the purposes of this article, I will be focusing on the Presidential election specifically, although I will provide a brief summary on the state or play for these legislative elections.


What do the fundamentals say?
In analysing any election, the logical place to start is the beginning. What is our starting point heading into this election? What priors and presumptions can we draw from history, an understanding of electoral mechanics, and the general macroscopic state of the nation, before even looking at the current data?

The first thing to note is that incumbency advantage is a very real thing in Presidential elections. Incumbent Presidents usually win. In fact, in the last 100 years, only 5 of 19 Presidents have failed to win re-election, including one of this year's candidates, Donald Trump. This is a well-studied phenomenon. Partly it is because incumbents will hold greater name recognition, but it also owes to the fact that voter preferences tend to be surprisingly fixed. Voters don't like to second-guess themselves or admit a mistake. So if they voted for someone previously, they are highly likely to do so again.

This effect is even more pronounced in political rematches. We don't have many examples of this in Presidential races, but in Congressional races it happens much more frequently than you would think, and almost always ends the same way as the previous contest. The most recent example we have of this at the Presidential level would be the 1956 election, which also ended the same way as the preceding contest. Again, this likely is due to voters becoming entrenched in their opinions, but there's also a certain taint that comes with being an electoral loser. Voters like a winner. This is the reason why Trump spends so much time talking about winning, and why he has consistently pretended to have won the 2020 election, which he didn't.

It is also worth highlighting that this being a Presidential election year likely helps Democrats. In recent history, Democrats have tended to perform better in Presidential election years than in midterms (see later - some suggestion that this may be changing). These elections tend to have higher turnout among young and more demographically diverse voters, who tend to vote heavily Democratic.

What can we glean from recent election cycles? This has been surprisingly under-reported, but the Trump era has largely been a period of decisive electoral victories for Democrats. 

Democrats won the 2018 midterms by historic landslide margins, no mean feat considering they have historically performed so poorly in midterms.

In 2020, Biden defeated Trump by a wide electoral and popular vote margin, expanding the map into states like Arizona and Georgia that Democrats haven't won in a generation. That they did this against an incumbent President (incumbents, as noted above, rarely lose) is a remarkable overperformance that for some reason hasn't really been talked about.

Then we have the 2022 midterms. The President's party usually suffers heavy losses in a midterm, especially if they're a Democrat (due the demographic disadvantage, noted above). Yet somehow, Democrats actually made gains in the Senate, and came very close to holding their House majority despite predictions of a red tsunami.

All three of these election cycles represent historic over-performance from the Democrats, by any reasonable metric. More notably, they arguably demonstrate diminishing electoral returns for Trumpist Republicans with each cycle. 

Then there's the economy. Unemployment is consistently at record lows. While inflation and gas prices have been high in the post-pandemic recovery, both have been consistently declining under Biden. By any metric the economy is booming right now, a very strong indicator for Biden.

A common refrain in a Presidential election is to ask voters if they are better off than they were four years ago. In this respect, Biden has arguably the easiest pitch in the history of Presidential politics. Four years ago, America was in the midst of a pandemic that killed millions, with an economy in freefall and double digit unemployment. Trump left office with an economy in ruins and the ignominy of being one of the only Presidents in modern history to see a net decline in jobs during his tenure. By any metric, the country is in a far better shape now than it was four years ago

Lastly, let's consider Biden's approval ratings. These are, it has to be said, fairly mediocre. Most approval ratings released over the past month have him in the low 40s (the average of the 9 most recent polls on 538 comes to 42%, with a range from 39% to 47%), which is historically pretty middling. It's higher than Trump, who spent most of his Presidency with approval in the 30s, and lost, but lower than Obama, who did have low 40s approval ratings in his election year, but started to push into the high 40s by this point and remained there until election day, which he ultimately won fairly comfortably. Approval ratings are far from an exact science, and not massively predictive, but one would typically expect a candidate with approval lower than the mid 40s to struggle. It is not clear how well that holds when up against a competitor with even worse approval ratings. It is also worth noting that incumbent approval ratings tend to improve as we get into election year, so watch this space.

In summary, we have an incumbent, overseeing a booming economy that has recovered significantly from one of the darkest eras in American history, running in an election cycle that history tells us will be demographically favourable for his party, on the back of a historic electoral overperformance in a cycle that was demographically less favourable than the current one. Approval ratings are a mild concern, but we would expect them to improve, and they aren't a mile off from where we would expect a winning incumbent to be.

This establishes a baseline expectation that 2024 "should" be a good year for Democrats. Only, this hasn't been the story of the 2024 election so far. In fact, most coverage has been painting the exact opposite picture, one in which Trump has the advantage. Why is this the case, and is it a valid depiction of the current state of the race?


What do the polls and other data say?
In short, the current Biden pessimism is coming from the polls. You will no doubt have seen the media breathlessly pointing to the polling aggregators. RealClearPolitics currently has Trump up 1.6%, DecisionDeskHQ has him up 1.2%, Race to the WH has him up 1.4%. Other aggregators, in fairness, are not showing this - The Economist and PollingUSA both currently have Biden ahead on aggregate. But the question here is about perception, and for whatever reason it is typically the aggregates that show Trump ahead which get the most media coverage.

I have a few things to say about this, as the media is generally quite poor at reading and reporting on polls, and right now they are ascribing far greater value to this metric than they should be. 

But before we dig into the specifics of the polls, I want to look at the rest of the available data. Pundits often treat the polls as the one and only source of data when discussing electoral prospects, but this is not the case and there are a number of other metrics that have predictive value.

First up, Congressional retirements. Elected officials from one party retiring or declining to run for re-election in large numbers is generally a bearish sign. It indicates that those officials have low expectations for their electoral prospects or the state of the party as a whole. Right now, the Republican party is seeing a mass efflux of Congressional members, which is not being matched by the Democrats.

Fundraising depicts a similar dynamic, where Democrats and Biden are significantly outraising Republicans and Trump, and indeed there are numerous stories of state Republican parties being on the verge of insolvency in key states like Michigan. 

But probably the most important additional data point I want to consider, one which is often overlooked in media, is the actual election results. With all the talk of polls, it's easy to forget that there are actual special elections taking place all throughout the year, some as recently as just a few weeks ago.

Once again, Democrats have been performing strongly here. Democrats have been outperforming in special elections relative to their baseline - ie, relative to what one would expect in a break-even year based on the partisanship of the electorate. In fact, currently they are outperforming their baseline by 11% on average. This is a very important point to note. Special election overperformance was one of the key indicators in 2022 that Democrats were headed for a good year, one which most pundits ignored.

It is also important to note that Democrats have not just been outperforming their baseline, but also the polls. Taking the most recent special election, NY-3, as an example, the polls had the race at D+3 on average. The actual result was D+8. We can see this consistently across special elections. Democrats are not just performing better than we would expect from their baseline, but also significantly and consistently outperforming their polls.

Lastly, let's briefly consider the primary elections. I am reluctant to read too much into primary election results, as they generally are not predictive of the eventual general election. I don't, for example, think you can make any conclusions by the number of people who voted in the Democratic primary vs the Republican primary, or the margins in general. What is interesting, however, is to look for consistent patterns in polling errors, and we have seen exactly that in this year's primaries. 

Polling has significantly and consistently underestimated Biden's vote share and overestimated Trump's vote share in these primaries. Most polling was showing Biden with 60-70% in the primaries, a lacklustre result for an incumbent. He generally ended up with 80-90%+. It was a similar story on the Republican side, where Trump was typically polling 80-90%, but mostly ended up with 60-70% in most races, and even ended up losing a few contests to Nikki Haley. If you consider that Trump is running as, essentially, an incumbent, then those results could be a bit of an alarm bell for November. The primary vote data actually gets worse for Trump the more you look at it, with particular weakness in the crucial suburbs that swung the 2020 election, and which Trump desperately needs to win back in 2024.

So overall we have some fairly mixed data. Fundamentals paint a positive picture for Biden, as does most of the data (retirements, fundraising, election results), but then the polling right now ostensibly is showing Trump in the lead. How do we square this apparent discrepancy? Let's have a closer look.


Analysing the data
The first thing to note, with respect to the polling averages, is that a 1.5% margin is not statistically significant. Most polls have a minimum margin of error of 3-4%. So even if you accept that the polls have Trump ahead by around 1.5%, this falls well within that margin. In other words, what these polls are really saying is that there is 95% confidence that the current position lies somewhere within Trump +5 to Biden +4. Not exactly definitive. 

The second, and most important thing to note is that we are still early in the election cycle, and polls at this stage are generally not very predictive - in fact, they are less predictive at this stage than some of the other data referenced above, such as special election results.

This shouldn't come as a surprise. As noted earlier, most voters aren't even aware that these two are the candidates at this point. They just aren't paying attention yet, much less in a position to have established a firm intention as to November. More to the point, it's not surprising to see the challenger leading at this point in an election cycle. Gallup, ABC, Washington Post all had Romney leading at this point in 2012, for example. This makes sense, as the challenger will have already been well into their campaign since the start of the primary - in this case, Trump has been campaigning since the end of the last election. Biden, by comparison, has been busy running the country, and is only just now beginning to switch into campaign mode.

In fact, about the most consistent pattern we can see historically in relation to early polls is that the incumbent tends to improve their numbers in the months leading up to the election, likely for the reason noted above. So, even if you believe that Trump is about 1.5% ahead in the current polls, history tells us that the numbers are likely to improve for Biden as we get closer to the election. Given the very narrow margin, that could easily swing the advantage towards Biden.

It is also worth noting that most polls right now are using what they refer to as a registered voter model, rather than a likely voter model. This means that the polls' current turnout model may not accurately represent the likely electorate in November. One of the commonly proposed explanations for why the polls don't reflect the actual election results is the idea that Trump is performing well with low-propensity voters who are less likely to vote, the idea being that they didn't turn out for special elections, but might in the general election. If this is correct, then you would expect the likely voter models will remove a lot of these less-likely voters, and move the numbers more in Biden's favour. A recent example of this in practice is this week's new poll from Florida Atlantic. Last month they had Trump up by 4%, this month they switched to a likely voter model and Biden is up by 2%. As you can see, the potential swing from this switch is very significant.

So there is good reason to think that poll numbers are likely to improve for Biden in the coming months. But I'll go further, there is also very good reason to think that the current polling averages may not be an accurate depiction of the current state of the race.

To demonstrate this point, let's revisit the 2022 election. The 2022 election is generally considered to have been a massive shock, one of the biggest polling misses in recent history. Polling averages, and the pundits that read them, were emphatic that Democrats would be decimated. When that did not happen, everyone was shocked. Only, they shouldn't have been shocked. I wasn't shocked. In fact, the uncannily accurate preview on this very blog predicted a close contest in the House and Democratic gains in the Senate. This wasn't just wishful thinking, it was based on the data. Data that most in the media either ignored or misinterpreted. 

What happened in 2022 was that there was a material disparity between the established, reputable, high quality pollsters (Quinnipiac, Ipsos, Monmouth, Morning Consult, The Economist, Marist), who were generally showing more positive numbers for Democrats, and the other lower quality pollsters (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, Harris), which generally showed the massive Republican gains that never materialised. This was the story of the 2022 election. High quality polls did, in fact, predict the strong Democratic performance, but they were drowned out in the averages by the much larger volume of, frankly, low-value data.

It seems very few in the media actually learned anything from 2022, and the narrative of that election cycle has largely been dumbed down to "the polls were wrong". The idea that, in actual fact, some polls were pretty accurate in 2022 requires more nuanced analysis and critical evaluation than they are willing, or able, to provide.

This is crucial to our understanding of the 2024 election, because it seems that very much the same thing is happening. The Economist recently did an analysis showing that, once again, there was a material disparity between the high quality polls, which were more favourable for Biden, and the low quality ones, which were more favourable for Trump.

In fact, if you look at the recent polls, it's really only the likes of HarrisX and Rasmussen, pollsters with a very long and consistent track record of having a "house effect" (read: bias) towards Republicans, propping up this Trump advantage. Most of the recent polls from high quality pollsters (Ipsos, Reuters, Quinnipiac, I&I/TIPP, Civiqs, Emerson, Morning Consult) all show Biden in the lead. Of the high quality pollsters, it's really only the one NYTimes poll showing a Trump advantage at the moment.

One last observation on the current polls. In general, I am hesitant to dig too much into the underlying data in the crosstabs. I've seen a lot of people in the media digging into these numbers and drawing all kinds of wild conclusions (on both sides) - more on this later. But there is some useful data to be gained here, specifically where they have polled individual policy issues. In particular, I note a lot of these more Trump-favourable polls are also finding significant majority support for things like nationwide abortion bans and shutting down planned parenthood, things which have never been popular in the past. If you show me a poll that says a particular candidate is more or less popular than before, I may not buy it, but it is plausible. The idea that a majority of the country could suddenly completely change their values and beliefs on historically entrenched topics like abortion, is simply not plausible to me. This, to me, is a red flag that those polls may be over-representing Trump supporters, who already hold those beliefs.

To be clear, this is not about predicting polling error based on the last election, which is notoriously unpredictable and changes with each election cycle. This is simply to point out that some pollsters are more reliable than others, and currently much of the Trump-favourable poll numbers are coming from pollsters with a poor track record. 

So it seems quite plausible that this current Trump advantage in the polls (slight as it is) may simply be another 2022-style mirage. Accordingly, this apparent disparity between the polls and other data may end up not being such a mystery after all, and just vanish as time goes on. 


Conclusions
Going back to the question posed at the end of this piece's introduction: is the current media depiction of this race as one where Trump is winning fair and accurate? Probably not. 

This narrative appears to be based on a fairly superficial and un-nuanced interpretation of just one out of several data points, and completely ignores other valid data. 

Taking a more holistic view of the available data, these apparent inconsistencies make a lot more sense. The fundamentals and most data are perfectly consistent with an election year that favours the Democrats. The polls, when subjected to a bit of critical scrutiny, also would seem suggestive of a more favourable environment than the aggregated average currently shows. 

Make no mistake, this is a close race, even if it is likely leaning towards Biden at the moment. A lot can change in the next eight months. But unless something major happens, like a health scare or scandal, my current expectation is that Joe Biden remains most likely to win the election.

This goes both ways, though. Trump being the same age as Biden, could equally have his own health scare. We also haven't considered the giant elephant in the room of Trump's ongoing criminal prosecutions. It's entirely possible that Trump could be a convicted felon by the time of the election, and even if he isn't, his trials will be occupying a huge amount of media coverage, not to mention Trump's time that he could otherwise be spending on the campaign trail. So while it is fair to say that Biden has potential downside that could turn this election against him. You would have to say that the potential downside is far greater for Trump.

To me, the current state of the race is clear. You would expect Biden to have an advantage over Trump, and the present data seems to support that this is the case. I don't think you can reasonably argue the alternative at the moment, without cherry-picking and ignoring valid data. It also seems most likely, based on historical patterns and the potential exposures both candidates face, that the race will continue to move towards Biden over the coming months. In short: you'd rather be Biden than Trump right now.


Debunking a few myths
I wanted to dedicate a segment of this article to debunking a few common myths, prevalent in how those in the media and social media tend to analyse election data. 

Myth: the polls show Trump support surging among young voters/minorities/[insert demographic here].

Answer: as noted above, there's been a lot of coverage in the media about the underlying data in the polls. NYTimes recently ran an article talking about Trump's historic surge in support among young voters. Others have observed Trump making historic gains with black and hispanic voters, a result that, if true, would represent the most significant racial realignment since the civil rights era. The problem is, it probably isn't real. 

The cross-tabs in polls are notoriously messy, and commonly show wonky results. This doesn't mean the top-line result of those polls is not accurate, often they are even when the cross-tabs look strange. 

More often than not, reading too much into this data will result in embarrassment. With the NYTimes piece, for example, NYTimes ran this huge, headline press-release about the youth-vote finding from their first poll, only for their follow up poll to show the exact opposite result (a finding which, strangely, did not merit its own headline). Regarding these claims of a historic racial realignment, even aside from the fact that this seems unlikely on the surface, it's also worth noting that polling in recent election cycles has shown similar shifts, that ultimately did not materialise in the general election. In 2022, for example, Democrats actually performed better with hispanic voters than in 2020, despite polls showing a big shift towards Trump. 

At the end of the day, big claims require big evidence. Better evidence than notoriously erratic cross-tabs. We see this kind of crazy cross-tab shifting every election. It usually amounts to nothing. Until we get some actual data verifying these claims, let's maintain a healthy skepticism. It's a classic example of not worrying about how the sausage gets made.

Myth: the polls always underestimate Trump, so we should assume he will outperform the polls in 2024.

Answer: I've seen a lot of this kind of suggestion, including from people who should know better. The idea is that Trump outperformed his polls in 2016 and 2020, and so we should assume he will do so again this year. As such, if he is roughly tied in the polls or if Biden leads narrowly, we should assume Trump is actually winning.

This is, of course, nonsense. Despite what you may have read, the polling errors in 2016 and 2020 were not actually all that unprecedented, nor were they all in the same direction in every race. For example, Trump outperformed 2020 polls nationally, but underperformed in certain key states like Georgia and Arizona. Trump-affiliated politicians also significantly underperformed polls in both 2018 and 2022, and Trump himself has significantly underperformed his polls so far in 2024. 

Bottom line, polling errors are notoriously difficult to predict and usually change from one election cycle to the next, even with the same candidates. Polling error in one election does not suggest there will be a similar error in the next. In fact, usually the opposite is true as pollsters overcompensate for their previous bias. There is no particular reason to believe that Trump will outperform his polls in 2024, and in fact some evidence to suggest the opposite.

Myth: Biden needs to win the popular vote by 4%+ due to the electoral college.

Answer: this myth is based on the observation that Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote in 2016, but lost the electoral college, and Biden won the national popular vote in 2020, but won key states only narrowly.

This is not a particularly strong analysis. It is well observed that the electoral college advantage changes with each election cycle. It is not especially predictable, nor interconnected enough that you can say an X% decrease nationally correlates to a Y% decrease in a particular key state. While it is true that Biden likely would have lost in 2020 had the national popular vote been a tie, the opposite was true in 2012 when Obama had this advantage over Romney. Similarly, in the most recent election cycle in 2022, Democrats won statewide races in key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona despite losing the national popular vote. So it can and will change, and we can't assume Biden needs to win the national popular vote by any particular margin. In fact, there is evidence to suggest that the electoral college advantage will be narrower this year, and that Biden may only need a small national popular vote advantage, if any.

Myth:
 The discrepancy between the November polls and recent election results is explainable by Trump's strength with low-propensity voters who are more likely to vote in November

Answer: I've already addressed this particular line of thinking earlier in this piece. The idea here is that the polls are so much more pro-Trump than the actual election results so far because Trump is polling disportionately well with voters who are less likely to vote in special elections and primaries.

I want to be careful here, as this isn't a terrible theory and there's no hard proof against it. It is, after all, a theory based on the absence of data, so there is fundamentally no way to prove or disprove it. There are, however, a few things about this that don't hold water. It does nothing to explain why the polls for the primaries and special elections were themselves wrong, for example. It's all well and good to say the early election results don't look like the November polls, because we expect a different electorate in November, but they didn't look like the early election polls either! Were they polling those races based on the expected November electorate? That makes no sense whatsoever. If they were then that seems like a pretty glaring polling flaw.

The bottom line is the pollsters got those election results wrong. They can pontificate all they want about why November will be different, but no amount of theorising will erase the wrongness of their early election polls. It's quite simple, if they were wrong with these elections, they could easily be wrong about November's election too. That's not saying they will be, but this particular theory is not a hugely compelling argument that they won't.


How about the House and Senate?
So far we have mainly been focusing on the Presidential election, but we will of course also have the legislative elections in 2024. Once again, every seat in the House is up for grabs, along with several Senate seats. What do we expect here?

In the House, Democrats appear to have the edge. For the last several years, Republicans held an absurd systemic advantage in the House due to gerrymandering, the process by which politicians choose their voters rather than the other way around. From 2010 to 2020, this was so bad that Democrats needed to win nationally by about 5% in order to take a majority. 

However, following the recent redistricting process, and the broader implementation of anti-gerrymandering laws, this advantage seems to have all but vanished. In fact, in 2022 Republicans won the national popular vote, yet only managed a slight edge in the House, by 6 seats. 2024 is expected to be demographically more favourable for Democrats, on top of which Democrats currently lead in the national popular vote polls. Anything can happen, but on the surface it is difficult to imagine Democrats not taking the majority when they came so close in 2022 and seem almost certain to improve on those numbers in 2024.

In the Senate, the situation is very different. 2024 is an absolutely brutal map for Democrats. They currently hold a 1 seat majority, and need to defend seats in reliably red states including Ohio, West Virginia and Montana, as well as key swing states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. By contrast, there are no clear pick up opportunities for Democrats. The closest possibilities seem to be Florida and Texas, two states which are reliably Republican at the moment.

In order to hold their Senate majority, Democrats will need there to be some ticket-splitting. That is to say, they will need states that Trump is almost certain to win, like Ohio, Montana, Florida, Texas, etc, to vote for a Democratic Senator. Ticket-splitting is increasingly rare, especially in Presidential election years. 

Democrats will be buoyed by the positive early polling in those states showing the Democratic candidate running ahead of Biden, which indicates that they could possibly hold those Senate seats even if Biden loses the state. The trouble is there is zero margin for error. Democrats will almost certainly lose the West Virginia seat now than Manchin has retired, which means they need to run the board on basically everything else. With margins this close, you would expect them to lose at least one, even if they are polling ahead. It's possible, but highly unlikely that they hold this majority.


Summary
Ok, so that is all for now. If you take one thing away from this piece, it is that we are still very early in the election cycle. We don't have a huge amount of concrete data, and there is good reason to believe that what little data we do have is prone to change. 

It is far too early to draw any kind of conclusions about how these elections will go, but the baseline fundamentals favour Biden, along with much of the early data. There has been a lot of noise about the polls potentially leaning the other direction towards Trump, but under greater scrutiny that narrative appears not to be hugely compelling. It is very early and we will get much better data in the coming months. As always, this blog will publish a final forecast shortly before the election. Until then, remember not to get too caught up in the media's hysteria. Data will fluctuate up and down over the campaign, it always does. Not every single little data point is significant, even if it makes for a punchy headline.








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