Thursday 31 October 2024
We are now less than one week away from the 2024 Presidential election, an election that, depending on which news networks you view, either portends the end of American democracy, or an apocalyptic invasion by immigrants. Hyperbole aside, the results of this election will have major ramifications as to the direction of the country and indeed the world at large, from the Ukraine war to the future of NATO and global climate accords. Per tradition, it is time for this blog to deliver its forecast, shedding some light on the likely outcome and making a few final predictions.
Introduction
Here we are again, keeping alive that biennial tradition of forecasting the US elections. The reason I do this is simple: there is a ton of bad analysis out there, as well as flat-out misinformation. It is increasingly difficult to maintain a clear view of American politics (by design), and my intent is to provide just a little bit of unvarnished, unmanipulated context.
Presidential Election Verdict: Kamala Harris Elected President
Predicted Electoral Map: Kamala Harris (D) - 286, Donald Trump (R) - 252.
The above map is based on data from a variety of aggregators, including Split Ticket, Fivethirtyeight, and analysts including Sabato and Cook Political, and shows the expected electoral map. The rest is pretty self explanatory: dark blue represents safe Democrat wins, light blue leans Democrat, grey is toss up. Meanwhile on the other side, light red to dark red represents lean to likely Republican.
It's also worth noting the down-ballot races in these states (more on these later). Democrats are currently running with significant leads against Republicans in statewide races in WI, AZ and NC. The latter two in particular feature especially problematic Republicans with major scandals or popularity issues. The suggestion is that this could potentially have a knock-on effect on the Presidential election. While this is plausible, history tells us that the top of the ticket race tends to be the greater driver to the polls. In other words, Trump is more likely to lift up unpopular candidates, than be dragged down by them. In practice, the result will likely be somewhere in the middle, but closer to Trump's numbers. This may seem minor, but with such close margins it could be material.
House of Representatives Verdict: Democratic Majority
Current House Map: Democrats - 212, Republicans - 220.
Predicted House Map: Democrats - 226, Republicans - 209.
Approximate Net Change: Democrats gain 15-20 seats.
How things have changed. For the longest time, the House was considered to be a bit of a foregone conclusion. The extreme partisan gerrymandering employed by the Republicans resulted in a House where it was extremely unlikely that they would lose control, even in a year in which voters decisively backed their opponents.
Current Senate Map: Democrats - 51, Republicans - 49.
Predicted Senate Map: Democrats- 49, Republicans - 51.
Approximate Net Change: Republicans gain 2 seats.
Key states to watch: AZ, MT, NE, OH, TX
Let's begin by stating the obvious: this is a bad map for Democrats. Control of the Senate depends on them successfully defending numerous states that Trump is expected to carry easily, with very few apparent pick up opportunities. Even in a good year for Democrats, they would probably lose this map. The fact that it is even close is due to the gulf in candidate quality, a consistent feature in down-ballot races throughout the Trump era.
Conclusion
So there it is. It's a close election, and one without close parallel due to the unique events that have occurred during the campaign. Nevertheless, the data presents a tangible, albeit narrow favourite. Ultimately, while the margins are tight, Harris simply has an easier path to 270. But this is far from a done deal. The race could still change in the final days, there could be polling error one way or the other, or independents/undecided voters could break unpredictably for one candidate. Such is the magic of democratic elections, you're never entirely sure which way it is going to end up. This forecast is probably about as accurate a sense of where things are going as can be formed right now, so take it for what it is, and good luck.
Sunday 1 September 2024
We're back. The transfer window has slammed shut, and with that the die is cast and another season of Premier League action awaits. It's a season chock-full of narrative and drama. Can anyone stand in the way of Manchester City's quest to turn the world's greatest football league into a one-club contest? Can Arne Slot slot into the Jurgen Klopp-shaped hole at Anfield? Will Arsenal finally go one better than oh-so-near and return to the summit of English football? Watch this space.
Premier League 2024/25 Predictions in a nutshell:
Champions: Arsenal
Champions League qualifiers: Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United
Relegated: Leicester, Crystal Palce, Southampton
Golden Boot winner: Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
Golden Glove winner: Ederson (Manchester City)
Player to watch: Cole Palmer (Chelsea)
New signing to watch: Riccardo Calafiori (Arsenal)
Young player to watch: Kobbie Mainoo (Manchester United)
First manager to get the sack: Sean Dyche (Everton)
Shock of the season: Arsenal show some bottle and win something?
ARSENAL
Nickname: The Gunners
Ground: Emirates Stadium
Capacity: 60,000
Position last season: 2nd
Manager: Mikel Arteta
Key Man: Martin Odegaard
Verdict: Title contenders, but can they keep consistent when the pressure is on?
ASTON VILLA
Nickname: The Villans
Ground: Villa Park
Capacity: 42,095
Last season: 4th
Manager: Unai Emery
Last season's surprise top four finish will not be soon forgotten at Villa Park. Unai Emery has defied every expectation to bring the storied Birmingham club back to the upper echelons of English football. But while optimism is at an all time high, caution is warranted.
Key Signing: Ian Maatsen
Key Man: Ollie Watkins
Verdict: Sometimes you need to take a step backwards to move forward. A top 7 finish will be a good result.
Nickname: The Cherries
Ground: Dean Court
Capacity: 11,364
Last season: 12th
Manager: Andoni Iraola
Key Signing: Evanilson
Key Man: Lewis Cook
Verdict: Not completely out of the relegation mix, but should survive.
Nickname: The Bees
Ground: Brentford Community Stadium
Capacity: 17,250
Last season: 16th
Manager: Thomas Frank
Has time run out on the great Brentford fairytale? It's been an impressive few seasons in the top flight for the Bees, one which has seen them take great strides off the pitch as well as on, establishing themselves as a football club of note, with a shiny new stadium, an impressive cast of talent, and some eye-catching football.
Key Signing: Fabio Carvalho
Key Man: Ivan Toney
Verdict: In the relegation mix, but with a good chance of survival.
BRIGHTON
Nickname: The Seagulls
Ground: Falmer Stadium
Capacity: 31,800
Last season: 11th
Manager: Fabian Hürzeler
Key Man: Kaoru Mitoma
Verdict: Will be looking for a solid top half finish to continue their progress.
Nickname: Blues
Ground: Stamford Bridge
Capacity: 41,837
Last season: 6th
Manager: Enzo Maresca
Key Signing: Filip Jörgensen
Key Man: Cole Palmer
CRYSTAL PALACE
Nickname: Eagles, Glaziers
Ground: Selhurst Park
Capacity: 25,486
Last season: 10th
Manager: Oliver Glasner
Key Signing: Daichi Kamada
Key Man: Eberechi Eze
Verdict: Palace could be a relegation risk, this is very much a transition year and expectations should be set accordingly.
EVERTON
Nickname: Toffees
Ground: Goodison Park
Capacity: 40,170
Last season: 15th
Manager: Sean Dyche
In the annals of underperforming Premier League teams, few earn their place more than Everton. Last season looked particularly bleak for the Toffees. A perennially struggling side that couldn't seem to find a consistent plan or manager, and a points deduction on top of that. But Sean Dyche deserves some credit for the work he has done, doing what he has so often done elsewhere in bringing the best out of a rough situation.
Key Signing: Iliman Ndiaye
Key Man: Jordan Pickford
Verdict: Not a relegation favourite, but under greater risk than they would like to believe.
Nickname: The Cottagers
Ground: Craven Cottage
Capacity: 24,500
Last season: 13th
Manager: Marco Silva
Key Signing: Emile Smith Rowe
Key Man: Bernd Leno
Verdict: Should be safe, and achieve a similar mid-table finish to last season.
Ground: Portman Road
Capacity: 30,014
Last season: Promoted (Runner up)
Manager: Kieran McKenna
Key Signing: Omari Hutchinson
Key Man: Omari Hutchinson
Verdict: A tough battle for survival awaits.
Ground: King Power Stadium
Capacity: 32,312
Last season: Promoted (Champions)
Manager: Steve Cooper
Key Signing: Abdul Fatawu
Key Man: Harry Winks
Verdict: Survival may depend on the impending PSR verdict.
Ground: Anfield
Capacity: 54,074
Last season: 3rd
Manager: Arne Slot
Key Man: Mo Salah
Verdict: Will expect a top four finish.
Nickname: Blues
Ground: Etihad Stadium
Capacity: 55,017
Last season: Champions
Manager: Pep Guardiola
Key Signing: Savinho
Key Man: Erling Haaland
Verdict: A major title favourite.
MANCHESTER UNITED
Nickname: Red Devils
Ground: Old Trafford
Capacity: 74,879
Last season: 8th
Manager: Erik ten Hag
Key Man: Bruno Fernandes
Verdict: Will be hoping to improve upon last season's finish and mount a real campaign for top four.
Nickname: The Magpies, Toon
Ground: St James' Park
Capacity: 52,305
Last season: 7th
Manager: Eddie Howe
Key Signing: Lewis Hall
Key Man: Joelinton
Verdict: The potential is there, but perhaps not enough about them to push for more than top 6.
Nickname: The Reds
Ground: City Ground
Capacity: 30,445
Last season: 17th
Manager: Nuno Espírito Santo
Key Man: Morgan Gibbs-White
Verdict: At risk for relegation.
Nickname: The Saints
Ground: St Mary's Stadium
Capacity: 32,384
Last season: Promoted (Playoff)
Manager: Russell Martin
Key Signing: Flynn Downes
Key Man: Kyle Walker-Peters
Ground: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Capacity: 62,850
Last season: 5th
Manager: Ange Postecoglou
Key Man: Son Heung-Min
Verdict: A top four contender.
Nickname: The Hammers
Ground: London Stadium
Capacity: 62,500
Last season: 9th
Manager: Julen Lopetegui
Deciding to move on from David Moyes can't have been easy for the Hammers. After all, Moyes has turned the fortunes of this club around in recent years, re-establishing them as a top flight side of merit. Under Lopetegui, West Ham is expected to continue refining a style that balances solid defensive organization with creative attacking play. The manager’s tactical proficiency will be crucial as the team looks to improve on their previous mid-table finish and push for European qualification spots.
Key Man: Jarrod Bowen
Verdict: Top half finish, but not threatening the clubs further up the table.
WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS
Nickname: Wolves
Ground: Molineux Stadium
Capacity: 32,050
Last season: 14th
Manager: Gary O'Neil
Key Signing: Rodrigo Gomes
Key Man: Hwang Hee-chan
Verdict: Without quality reinforcements will struggle, and perhaps risk relegation.
Predicted table:
1. Arsenal
2. Manchester City
5. Tottenham Hotspur
6. Aston Villa
7. Chelsea
8. Newcastle United
9. West Ham United
10. Brighton
11. Fulham
12. Everton
13. Bournemouth
14. Brentford
16. Wolverhampton Wanderers
18. Leicester City
19. Crystal Palace
20. Southampton
Friday 26 July 2024
Are you not entertained? There is rarely a dull moment in American politics, and this week delivered a particularly historic curveball, as incumbent President Joe Biden withdrew his re-election bid, throwing his endorsement behind Vice President Kamala Harris. How did this happen? Why? What does it mean for the upcoming election? Let's talk about it.
When this blog last spoke about the election in our way too early preview back in March, we set the baseline for what to expect from the 2024 election. As a relatively legislatively accomplished President, absent of major scandal, and presiding over a roaring economy, Joe Biden was in a strong position for re-election. History tells us that a President in his position is an overwhelming favourite for re-election.
Sunday 19 May 2024
Another Premier League campaign in the history books and it was... basically what we expected. Manchester City did claim a record breaking fourth consecutive title, but were unexpectedly pressed until the last day by an impressive Arsenal title charge. At the foot of the table, no mercy for the newcomers, as all three newly promoted clubs received their marching orders, a stark reminder of the massive step up that the Premier League requires.
The Ephemeric Premier League Awards 2024:
Winners: Manchester City
Relegated: Luton Town, Burnley, Sheffield United
Player of the Year: Phil Foden (Manchester City)
U-21 Player of the Year: Cole Palmer (Chelsea)
Best Goalkeeper: Jordan Pickford (Everton)
Top Scorer: Erling Haaland (Manchester City) (27)
Most Assists: Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) (13)
Manager of the Year: Unai Emery (Aston Villa)
Best signing of the season: Cole Palmer (Chelsea)
Worst signing of the season: Sandro Tonali (Newcastle United)
The Ephemeric Premier League Team of the Season 2024:
Thursday 2 May 2024
Created by Graham Wagner, Geneva Robertson-Dworet, Jonathan Nolan
Network Amazon
Starring Ella Purnell, Aaron Moten, Walton Goggins
Genre Science Fiction, Satire
Running Time 45-74 minutes
Fans of geeky TV series are eating well. Hot on the heels of Netflix's really-pretty-good 3 Body Problem adaptation last month, comes Amazon with an even less likely adaptation of the celebrated Fallout series of videogames.
Wednesday 24 April 2024
Genre Electro-swing
Label Verywise Studio
Producers Caravan Palace
Must Listen :
Raccoons
Mirrors
MAD
Special 81
Sunday 21 April 2024
Created by David Benioff, D.B. Weiss, Alexander Woo
Network Netflix
Starring Jovan Adepo, Eiza González, Jess Hong, Alex Sharp, Liam Cunningham
Genre Science Fiction
Running Time 44-63 minutes
It is safe to say that I was skeptical when I heard Netflix were adapting Liu Cixin's seminal Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy, the first novel of which is titled The Three-Body Problem. As much as I love these books, it was difficult to imagine how they might be successfully transposed to the screen. This is, after all, a series that derives its success more from heady concepts than satisfying character-drama, with minimal action outside of the denouement of each novel.