Sunday 12 March 2023
Welcome back to The Ephemeric. It is Oscar season again, and once again March is the month in which I know not the light of day. I could make the same joke as last year by copy pasting the intro blurb, but instead I'll just get straight to some predictions so we can all go on with our day.
This was actually a pretty tricky year to call. I am very torn between The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once for the bulk of awards. Both are love it or hate it kind of movies that could really go either way depending on who's voting. Meanwhile many of the technical awards are being contested by an array of sumptuously produced but otherwise aggressively "just ok" films like Elvis, Avatar 2 and The Fabelans. I'm usually pretty accurate with these predictions, but who knows, this year could spring a few surprises!
Best Picture
Nominations:
- All Quiet on the Western Front – Malte Grunert, producer
- Avatar: The Way of Water – James Cameron and Jon Landau, producers
- The Banshees of Inisherin – Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, and Martin McDonagh, producers
- Elvis – Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick, and Schuyler Weiss, producers
- Everything Everywhere All at Once – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, and Jonathan Wang, producers
- The Fabelmans – Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg, and Tony Kushner, producers
- Tár – Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan, and Scott Lambert, producers
- Top Gun: Maverick – Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison, and Jerry Bruckheimer, producers
- Triangle of Sadness – Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, producers
- Women Talking – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Frances McDormand, producers
Who should really win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Explanation: I am torn this year between EEAaO and Banshees of Inisherin. Banshees is a brilliantly made movie, one of McDonagh's best, but EEAaO is one of those once in a generation slices of insanity that will enthrall some and repulse others. My initial impression was that Banshees was the superior film, but EEAaO has grown on me since I saw it, for its ambition, its imagination. I think it will win the big prize today.
Best Director
Nominations:
Who should really win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Director
Nominations:
- Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
- Todd Field – Tár
- Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
Who should really win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Explanation: As best picture goes, so also does best director often go. Hard to argue with a director who is able to make audiences weep over a scene of two rocks arguing.
Best Actor
Nominations:
Who should really win: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin as Pádraic Súilleabháin
Best Actor
Nominations:
- Austin Butler – Elvis as Elvis Presley
- Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin as Pádraic Súilleabháin
- Brendan Fraser – The Whale as Charlie
- Paul Mescal – Aftersun as Calum Paterson
- Bill Nighy – Living as Mr. Rodney Williams
Who should really win: Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin as Pádraic Súilleabháin
Explanation: Another tricky one to call. Everyone is falling over themselves with praise for Brendan Fraser this year. But one suspects that a significant part of it is the story behind his career, his abuse and the shameful treatment he received. People like the story of the Brendan Fraser comeback. On the merits of performance, my pick goes to Colin Farrell for delivering a career best performance in Banshees.
Best Actress
Nominations:
Who should really win: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once as Evelyn Quan Wang
Best Actress
Nominations:
- Cate Blanchett – Tár as Lydia Tár
- Ana de Armas – Blonde as Norma Jeane
- Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie as Leslie Rowlands
- Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans as Mitzi Schildkraut-Fabelman
- Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once as Evelyn Quan Wang
Who should really win: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once as Evelyn Quan Wang
Explanation: No argument here, Michelle Yeoh is queen.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominations:
Who should really win: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once as Waymond Wang
Best Supporting Actor
Nominations:
- Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin as Colm Doherty
- Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway as James Aucoin
- Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans as Boris Schildkraut
- Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin as Dominic Kearney
- Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once as Waymond Wang
Who should really win: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once as Waymond Wang
Explanation: None here either, Ke Huy Quan's performance in EEAaO was astonishing, especially considering Quan has been out of acting for such a long time. That rare example of feel good hype that is actually justified by the work. What a story, what a performance.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominations:
- Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever as Queen Ramonda
- Hong Chau – The Whale as Liz
- Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin as Siobhán Súilleabháin
- Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once as Deirdre Beaubeirdre
- Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once as Joy Wang / Jobu Tupaki
Who should really win: Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once as Joy Wang / Jobu Tupaki
Explanation: I have a feeling the Academy will choose to recognise Curtis, as much for her performance as for her body of work over the years (as the Academy tends to do). I would actually have awarded this to her EEAaO co-star Stephanie Hsu, whose performance was simply spellbinding.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominations:
Who should really win: The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh
Best Original Screenplay
Nominations:
- The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh
- Everything Everywhere All at Once – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
- The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
- Tár – Todd Field
- Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Östlund
Who should really win: The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh
Explanation: Let me just say, EEAaO and Banshees would both deserve this prize should they emerge victorious, and with the way the hype train is going I expect they will go for the former. Banshee's masterful character study and wit makes for a marginally more deserving winner, in my opinion.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominations:
Who should really win: Living – Kazuo Ishiguro; based on the original motion picture screenplay Ikiru by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto, and Hideo Oguni
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominations:
- All Quiet on the Western Front – Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell; based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Rian Johnson; based on characters created by Johnson and the film Knives Out
- Living – Kazuo Ishiguro; based on the original motion picture screenplay Ikiru by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto, and Hideo Oguni
- Top Gun: Maverick – Screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks; based on the film Top Gun written by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.
- Women Talking – Sarah Polley; based on the novel by Miriam Toews
Who should really win: Living – Kazuo Ishiguro; based on the original motion picture screenplay Ikiru by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto, and Hideo Oguni
Explanation: For my money, there is one standout film from this list, Kazuo Ishiguro's beautiful Living. A film that has flown surprisingly under the radars of the American awards bodies. Subtlety is a British trait, after all.
So there you have it, The Ephemeric's picks for the year. Enjoy the Oscars tonight, and when the results go as predicted, remember that you heard it here first!
So there you have it, The Ephemeric's picks for the year. Enjoy the Oscars tonight, and when the results go as predicted, remember that you heard it here first!
